I’ve been keeping myself busy doing The Daily Fantasy Pulse and contributing over at Rotoviz, but I wanted to give you all my take on the wide receiver movement over the last several days.
Percy Harvin
Quick Hit: Harvin, already an elite, Top-10 option in my 2013 redraft rankings, upgraded his situation. While it is unlikely that he will see the same insane amount of targets that he did in Minnesota, the touches that he will get will be more valuable. I fully expect the Seahawks offense to be top-5 league wide. Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Harvin in the read option is incredibly dangerous and none of the other receiving options on the Seahawks threaten to dethrone Harvin as the clear top dog. Wilson had a QB rating of 102.4 to his short left, 106 to the short middle and 104.6 to his short right; this means that Wilson is efficient in the area’s where Harvin needs the ball.
Danny Amendola
Quick Hit: Amendola finally replaces a player that he has been compared to his entire career. Amendola clearly has a 100 catch season within his skill set but has been unable to stay healthy and has played with Sam Bradford his entire career. Chances are that Amendola will end up getting very, very over-drafted in 2013 and won’t end up on any of my times, but if his ADP settles somewhere around the 7th round, he will return value.
Wes Welker
Quick Hit: Unlike Amendola, Welker is an incredibly durable slot wide receiver. Also unlike Amendola, Welker’s move clearly hurts his fantasy value. Eric Decker and Wes Welker both posted 70% catch rates in 2012 and Welker dropped 19 passes to Decker’s 12. Demaryius Thomas is still going to be a top 10 wide receiver, but Decker and Welker are going to be killing each others values all year. There will be weeks where Decker is a WR1, and so will Welker; but neither of them are going to end up on any of my teams.
Mike Wallace
Quick Hit: Not only did the Dolphins franchise sign a damaging contract that will restrict their ability to improve in the future, but they also hurt Mike Wallace’s fantasy value. I already don’t like Wallace as a fantasy proposition due to his subpar 52% catch rate and 19.4% catch rate on deep balls. There is some hope for Wallace to flourish, at least as WR2 in 12 team leagues due to Ryan Tannehill’s 43% completion rate on passes 20 yards down the field.
Donnie Avery
Quick Hit: Downgrading from Andrew Luck to Alex Smith basically makes Avery’s fantasy football value nonexistent. Even with Luck, Avery only posted a 52% catch rate. No metric suggests that Avery is an elite talent but as a WR4 in a deeper league, you could do worse.
About Davis Mattek
20 Year old student of English at Kansas State University. Writer for Sports Wunderkind, The Fake Football and Hockey, and various other media outlets. Fan of the Cowboys, Thunder, Avalanche and Royals
