marshall

A Look At Wide Receiver Performance On 3rd Down

Posted on by Davis Mattek

June is awful, you guys. All we have is conjecture, last years statistics and NFL Game Rewind. In my final attempts to set my big board for the myriad of drafts that I will have in August, I’ve begun digging into Pro Football-Reference’s Play Index, to see exactly what players are good at. Recently, I’ve had some trouble differentiating between WR8-WR15. One way I tried looking at these players is by analyzing their efficiency on 3rd Down. The highest % of passes in the league comes on 3rd downs and teams that put their players in the best position to succeed, whether it be a combination of routes ran, QB/WR efficiency or schedule, these are all the players with >250 yards on 3rd downs in 2013.

Player T C Pct Yds ▾ Yards/Target TD
Brandon Marshall 68 39 57.40% 500 12.8205128205 5
Calvin Johnson 57 30 52.60% 491 16.3666666667 1
Reggie Wayne 50 30 60.00% 422 14.0666666667 3
Vincent Jackson 37 21 56.80% 419 19.9523809524 2
Marques Colston 39 23 59.00% 400 17.3913043478 1
Roddy White 43 26 60.50% 393 15.1153846154 2
Randall Cobb 33 24 72.70% 386 16.0833333333 4
Lance Moore 34 20 58.80% 384 19.2 1
Victor Cruz 45 27 60.00% 375 13.8888888889 3
Steve Johnson 38 25 65.80% 363 14.52 3
Justin Blackmon 36 19 52.80% 356 18.7368421053 2
Michael Crabtree 49 30 61.20% 355 11.8333333333 5
Eric Decker 33 25 75.80% 355 14.2 4
Steve Smith 44 22 50.00% 346 15.7272727273 3
Mike Williams 39 21 53.80% 342 16.2857142857 4
Danario Alexander 26 15 57.70% 340 22.6666666667 4
Demaryius Thomas 37 25 67.60% 337 13.48 4
Wes Welker 41 29 70.70% 304 10.4827586207 2
Anquan Boldin 34 21 61.80% 294 14 0
T.Y. Hilton 25 11 44.00% 293 26.6363636364 2
Jimmy Graham 44 26 59.10% 291 11.1923076923 2
Jordy Nelson 19 15 78.90% 288 19.2 0
Dez Bryant 40 19 47.50% 287 15.1052631579 2
Andre Johnson 30 23 76.70% 286 12.4347826087 1
Jermaine Gresham 36 21 58.30% 281 13.380952381 3
Dwayne Bowe 36 20 55.60% 277 13.85 1
Santana Moss 24 15 62.50% 274 18.2666666667 4
Rod Streater 30 17 56.70% 269 15.8235294118 1
Emmanuel Sanders 30 17 56.70% 259 15.2352941176 0
Golden Tate 25 18 72.00% 256 14.2222222222 1
Davone Bess 42 24 57.10% 254 10.5833333333 1
Miles Austin 27 17 63.00% 253 14.8823529412 0
Jeremy Maclin 25 13 52.00% 252 19.3846153846 2
Mike Wallace 34 16 47.10% 250 15.625 4

Quick Notes

– Dear holy mother of god, Brandon Marshall, they are barely alive.

– Jordy Nelson showing why he is going to the #1 WR in the Packers offense in 2013. Randall Cobb gets the love as the underneath, high catch % option, but Jordy went 15-19 on 3rd down targets.

– Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne lazer-locked onto Justin Blackmon in obvious passing situations, throwing him a heavy 36 targets on 3rd downs, and Blackmon gained almost 19 yards per target in those situations.

– Unsurprisingly, Mike Wallace was really inefficient on 3rd down, but was able to beat the defense for 4 touchdowns in that situation.

– Most of the names on this list make sense, whether it be role or talent, and then you see Lance Moore with elite numbers. 19.2 yards per target is crazy good, and he gained almost half of his receiving yardage on 3rd down. This is a guy who plays very, very well with Drew Brees.