Nope.
Just kidding. It won’t be easy, though. This year’s version of the Miami LeBrons is the best yet. Each of the Big Three shot over 50% from the field, with James checking in at 57% (as well as 41% from 3). Five players shoot over 40% from 3, with Rashard Lewis just behind at 39% and Norris Cole at 36%. One of those five shooting 40+% is not Chris Bosh, who is makin’ it rain from beyond the arc in the playoffs with his blistering 47% mark. Basically, last year’s most physically dominant and athletic team is now one of the most (if not THE most) efficient teams shooting wise AND they are healthy too. People seem to forget Bosh’s injury at the beginning of last year’s series in the Conference Semifinals against Indiana but that certainly had an impact as well. So everyone is screwed, right?
Not if the bad-boy, rock ‘em sock ‘em crew that is the Indiana Pacers have anything to say about it. Indy is about as close as you can get to an antithesis of the Miami Heat. The Pacers are slow, big, and methodical, while the Heat fly up and down the court, play small ball, and shoot lots and lots of 3s. It’s Miami’s unstoppable force of an offense against the immovable Indiana defense. The old adage says defense wins championships, but that isn’t applicable to the current landscape of the NBA. The last defense-first oriented team to win a championship was the 2004 Detroit Pistons, and that was a different league. Not to say that Indiana is incapable offensively. Danny Granger’s season-ending injury set them back at the beginning of the year, but they came in since the All-Star Break to finish in the top 15 as a team offensively.
In order for Indiana to beat Miami, they’ll have to play the Heat’s game a little bit. They don’t want to run up and down the court with them, that would mean a quick 4-game sweep for Miami; but the Pacers are going to have to make 3s. The biggest question is how? Without a reliable penetrator or shot-creator, shooting 3s isn’t the easiest of tasks. Indiana and Miami played three regular season games this year, with Indy taking the first two and Miami winning the third. There were two main differences in the contests. In the first two, the Pacers shot over 40% from 3 and obliterated Miami on the boards (including 22 offensive rebounds in the first game), but in the series finale, the Heat shot 50% from downtown and evened out the rebounding margin. Everything else, turnovers, fouls, free throw shooting, was fairly similar. What this tells us that in order for Indiana to be productive against Miami, they have to dominate the glass, both offensively and defensively (especially offensively), as that’s one of the best ways for them to get open shots. Paul George, George Hill, and Lance Stephenson are all better 3 point shooters than their playoff numbers suggest (27%, 32%, and 27% respectively) so hopefully that will balance out for them in this series. Miami also plays very aggressively on pick-and-rolls, so David West will be crucial this series as a distributor. Think back to the Golden State piece I wrote about a week ago. On pick-and-rolls, when the defense is aggressive, often times the rotating big man will get into the ball handler’s face, so the handler will dump it off to the guy rolling to the hoop, in this situation for Indiana, it’s usually David West. The defense will then rotate to prevent an easy West bucket, usually leaving one of the corners open, where D.J. Augustin/Hill/Stephenson/George, etc. will be waiting for the open shot.
We know what Indiana is going to do. They’re gonna play really good defense, and they aren’t going to be afraid to hit Miami in the mouth first. But the Heat will come back with a full head of angry LeBron-fueled steam. Will Indiana be able to answer for when the inevitable happens and James snaps into God Mode? For the sake of an awesome series, I sure hope so.
The matchup everyone will be watching is Paul George, one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, guarding the King himself. LeBron destroys his foes in numerous ways, and one of his favorites is by forcing them into foul trouble. If George can’t stay on the court, the Pacers are done. They are paper-thin behind him because of the injury to Granger. Sam Young and Gerald Green don’t stand a chance against James. Paul needs to be able to play great defense on James without hacking him or taking any stupid fouls, because he’s going to need to match every single one of number 6’s minutes. Considering that Kevin Durant was exhausted guarding LeBron in last year’s finals, and it caused his offense to suffer (also he couldn’t stay on the court due to foul issues that Lebron created), the idea of George locking down LeBron and being the primary, or even second, weapon on offense is difficult to swallow. That makes it all the more imperative that Hill, Augustin, and the other role players hit those 3s.
In all likelihood, Miami is going to win this series. I think in 5 games. However, to say they don’t stand any chance is ignorant. Indy could absolutely catch fire from 3, Hibbert could snag 5 offensive boards a game, and David West could elbow Chris Bosh in the Adam’s apple so hard that he doesn’t look like a velociraptor anymore. The Pacers are the kind of team who fully believe that they can and will knock the Heat out. It’s not likely. But crazier things have happened. Just look at this guy.
