Quarterback:
1. Jared Goff
2. Connor Cook
3. Dak Prescott
4. Carson Wentz
5. Paxton Lynch
6. Cardale Jones
7. Brandon Doughty
8. Jacoby Brisset
9. Christian Hackenberg
10. Jeff Driskel

Running Back
1. Ezekiel Elliot
2. Derrick Henry
3. Devontae Booker
4. Jordan Howard
5. CJ Prosise
6. Kenneth Dixon
7. Alex Collins
8. Paul Perkins
9. Tyler Ervin
10. Byron Marshall
11. Keith Marshall
12. Jonathan Williams
13. Daniel Lasco
14. Josh Ferguson
15. Kenyan Drake
16. Kelvin Taylor
17. Deandre Washington
18. Marshaun Coprich
19. Wendall Smallwood
20. Tre Madden
21. Peyton Barber
22. Dwayne Washington
23. Keenan Reynolds
24. Shad Thornton
25. Brandon Wilds
26. Aaron Green
27. Devon Johnson
28. Tra Carson
29. DJ Foster
30. Jhurrel Pressley

Wide Receiver Ranks
1. Corey Coleman
2. Josh Doctson
3. Laquon Treadwell
4. Leonte Caroo
5. Sterling Shepard
6. Will Fuller
7. Rashard Higgins
8. Pharoh Cooper
9. Tajae Sharpe
10. Keyarris Garret
11. Tyler Boyd
12. Mitch Matthews
13. Braxton Miller
14.Byron Marshall
15. Michael Thomas (Southern Miss)
16. Jakeem Grant
17. Hunter Sharp
18. Aaron Burbridge
19. Michael Thomas (OSU)
20. Nelson Spruce
21. Demarcus Ayers
22. De’Runnya Wilson
23. Cody Core
24. Geronimo Allison
25. Roger Lewis
26. Malcolm Mitchell
27. DJ Foster
28. Daniel Braverman
29. Mekele McKay
30. Dom Williams
31. DJ Foster
32. Charone Peake
33. Paul McRoberts
34. Bralon Addison
35. Jay Lee
36. Ricardo Louis
37. Kolby Listenbee
38. Alonzo Russell
39. Jalin Marshall
40. Jordon Payton
41. Devon Cajuste

Tight End
1. Hunter Henry
2. Austin Hooper
3. Jerrel Adams
4. Nick Vannet
5. Ryan Malleck
6. Kivon Cartwright
7. Tyler Higbee
8. Bryce Williams
9. David Grinnage
10. David Morgan

Here are my week 7 plays. These rankings can roughly be used for Draft Kings, but there are other players on DK that I like more than some of these guys. I apologize for not getting this done in time for the Thursday/Friday games, I will try and get it done sooner next week.

Top 8 QB’s

1. Brett Hundley – UCLA
Hundley is my overally number 1 QB on any site. He is one of the most polished passers in the country and is going up against a Cal team that is giving up 304 yards and 2 TD’s per game. Hundley and his arsenal of weapons should blow up this weekend. Not to mention that UCLA’s starting RB Jordan James is out, so Hundley will probably look to use his legs a little more than usual.

2. Marcus Mariota – Oregon
Mariota is a bad, bad man. The guy put up 60 points last week!!! Now I doubt that he puts up 60 this week, but nobody can seem to stop this high-octane Oregon offense or the beast that is Marcus Mariota. Washington is probably the best defense that they’ve faced this year, but I really don’t think that is going to matter. It really just means that Mariota and company get to stay on the field for the entire game. Watch out.

3. Johnny Manziel – Texas A&M
I love watching this kid more and more every week. He doesn’t care what anybody thinks or says about him. He just goes out, puts up huge numbers, and wins football games. This game has the highest O/U for the week at 76, and I expect it to be the over. Watch Johnny Football do what he does best and watch your fantasy lineups make you money.

4. Sean Mannion – Oregon State
“Mannion to Cooks for another touchdown!” Anybody watching this game will probably hear that a couple times. This game looks to be a shootout, expect to see Mannion throwing the ball deep down field early and often, and expect to see alot of passing touchdowns, especially from Sean Mannion.

5. Bryce Petty – Baylor
Wow. This kid is continuing to dazzle everyone with his cannon of an arm and his pinpoint accuracy down the field. Pair him with with two STUD receivers and the best running back in the country, and you have a pretty nice offense that just so happens to average 70 points per game. I don’t think Baylor will score 70 this week against K-State, but 49 isn’t out of the question.

6. Taylor Kelly – Arizona St.
Colorado’s pass defense is horrific. That is music to my ears when it comes to fantasy football. ASU is a pass first team and they will destroy this Colorado defense. Kelly is a solid QB who has weapons stashed everywhere in this offense. He probably won’t put up numbers like the first 6 guys on this list, but he won’t be far behind either.

7. James Franklin – Missouri
Being a die-hard KU fan, I hate to say good things about Missouri players, but Franklin is legit. He’s a true dual threat QB that has two massive receivers to throw to; that just sounds like success. Missouri has a tough matchup with Georgia this week, but that task doesn’t seem so daunting with one of the best offenses in the country. Mizzou is finally getting some recognition and wants to continue to be recognized, they won’t back down easily this weekend.

8. Tajh Boyd – Clemson
For some reason, nobody seems to really talk about Tajh Boyd in the Heisman race and he’s not getting much recognition as an NFL prospect. His 1600 total yards and 18 total TD’s say otherwise. He loads the stat sheet every week and is consistently a top 10 fantasy play. He’s gonna keep putting up numbers, enjoy it.

Value Plays

1. Terrel Hunt – Syracuse
Hunt just recently won the starting job and played lights-out in his first two appearances. Last week against Clemson was another story. NC State is no Clemson, so I think Hunt could have a decent game and can definitely exceed his price tag.

2. Danny Etling – Purdue
I was watching the game a couple weeks ago against Northern Illinois when Etling saw his first action. He came in and the Boilermakers had new life. The game was already out of reach when he came in, but the spark he provided the team was evident and he showed some real talent. This game should get out of hand so Etling will get some good garbage time reps and could put up some good numbers.

3. Treyvon Boykin – TCU
Boykin hasn’t been terrific, but hasn’t been bad at all either. He’s shown at times that he can be a good passer, but his biggest threat is running ability. He’s coming off of two really solid games and faces a KU team that unfortunately is still just not good. Texas Tech put up 54 points against KU last week and TCU will probably do something similar this week.

4. Daniel Sams – K-State
Sams took over the QB job for Bill Snyder last week and played a hell of a game, throwing for 2 TD’s and rushing for 118 and a TD. Baylor’s defense is a little bit better than Ok. State’s, but Sams should still be able to put up some points and use his athleticism to move the ball down the field.

Top 9 RB’s

1. Lache Seastrunk – Baylor
That name alone could put him at the top of my list, but his talent is out of this world. The most talented back in the country, in my opinion. Seastrunk has put up massive numbers this year, has only played two third quarter snaps all year, one of which was a 75 yard TD run, and has yet to play a snap in the fourth quarter. Keeping Lache under 100 yards is nearly impossible and keeping him out of the end zone seems even harder. I’ll be riding his stat line to some victories this weekend, and I suggest you do the same.

2. Ameer Abdullah – Nebraska
I played Abdullah alot last week, and was very thankful for that. He had a monster day against an average Illinois defense. Well, Purdue’s defense is even worse. Abdullah will run early, often, and will break some long runs. The only down side here is that his price tag is finally catching up to him.

3. Marion Grice – Arizona State
Grice just has a knack for finding the end zone, he already has 13 total TD’s! He’s a football player, simple as that. He’ll line up in the backfield and pound out yardage, or he’ll line up as a receiver and go catch touchdown passes. It doesn’t matter what they ask of him, he does it and he does it well. Not to mention that he’s gonna see a horrible Colorado defense this week. Watch him light up the stat sheet.

4. T.J. Yeldon – Alabama
Alabama is known for producing running backs in recent years and Yeldon is supposedly the most talented running back they’ve had in the Nick Saban era. Yeldon is a beast and, when given the carries, he puts up huge numbers. I think he’ll get his touches this week and be able to put up 100+ and a TD or two.

5. DeAnthony Thomas/Byron Marshall – Oregon
I only have these two put together because nobody knows whether DeAnthony will start or not. If he’s good to go, play him. If not, play Marshall. Either one, if not both of these guys could have a huge day against Washington State

6. Bishop Sankey – Washington
Here’s another “other-worldly” player. He is the definition of a workhorse running back and is fourth in the nation in rushing yards, and that includes a game against Idaho where he only got 4 carries. Sankey is almost a lock for 100 yards and at least one TD.

7. Melvin Gordon – Wisconsin
I’m still somewhat hesitant to play the Wisconsin RB’s because it is a timeshare, even though it shouldn’t be because Gordon is the far superior back. Gordon is also the bigger of the two backs, which makes me think he’ll get more of the workload this week. He might not have a game like Carlos Hyde had last week, but he will have a solid game and be a good fantasy play.

8. Tyler Gafney – Stanford
Gafney is another one of those guys who just likes to score TD’s. He has a really favorable matchup with a Utah team that Stanford should handle easily, which means garbage time running and maybe even a garbage time TD for Tyler Gafney.

9. Ben Malena – Texas A&M
Ben doesn’t really get a very big workload playing with Johnny Football, but he makes the most of the chances he does get. I think A&M will have to establish the run game to beat Ole Miss and Malena is just the guy to do that for them. He’s scored a TD in every game this year and that should continue this week.

Value Plays

1. Mike Davis – South Carolina
I love the fact that I can put Davis in as a value play because his price tag is so low. I have no idea why its low, but I love it. Davis is one of the best backs in the country and continues to produce like one. He’s coming off back to back monster games and wants another. Arkansas’ defense isn’t nearly as good as some people think it is and I think Davis will find some nice gaps this week.

2. Kevin Parks – Virginia
Parks has been really hit or miss this year. And by that I mean he’s had 2 games of 100+ yards and 2 TD’s and 3 games of 65 yards or less. I like the matchup with Maryland this week, who is giving up 218 yards and a TD every game. I think Parks will have one of his “hit” games and definitely exceed his price tag.

3. Marcus Shaw – USF
Keep in mind, he is listed as questionable, but I think he will play. Shaw is one of the most underrated backs in the country and he has a juicy matchup with a Connecticut defense thats giving up 192 yards and over 2 TD’s on the ground. Shaw, if he plays, will definitely exceed his price tag.

4. Treyvon Green – Northwestern
I know Venrick Mark is back, but Wisconsin has a big defensive front and, quite frankly, Mark is too small to play against them. The same reason Jordan Hall didn’t do anything last week. Green is quite a bit bigger than Mark and can hold his own against big defenders. He’s shown that he can have huge games, he’s just very inconsistent. Green might have a big game this week. I wouldn’t go all in on him, but he will show up in a couple of my lineups.

5. Jeremy Hill – LSU
I can’t believe Hill is so cheap. Yes, he does have a brutal matchup against a really good Florida defense, but Hill is a really good running back and will have to be involved in the game, especially since Jarvis Landry might not play this week. Don’t hesitate to play Hill just because he has a tough matchup.

Top 15 WR

These are my WR ranks mixed in with the value ranks. There’s not point in paying huge money for WR’s when there is so much depth around the country at the position. Also, just because I don’t have guys like Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Paul Richardson, etc., doesn’t mean I don’t like them. I love all three of them this week. If you have enough money, throw them in, they will produce.

1. Jaelen Strong – Arizona State
Strong is a prototypical NFL receiver. At 6’4″, 205, he has the perfect frame to be an elite WR at the next level. He couldn’t ask for a better matchup this week than with Colorado, and he will rip them apart. He’s put up 100 yards or a TD in every game this year. This just might be his first ever two TD performance.

2. Sammy Watkins – Clemson
I said it last week and I’ll say it again; Watkins is probably the most explosive receiver in the country. He has yet to have a ridiculous game, which is why is price tag is still low. Clemson is a huge favorite and I expect Boyd and Watkins to connect early and often this weekend. I like Sammy for a big game.

3. Ty Montgomery – Stanford
It seems like Montgomery is the favorite target of a team that loves to throw in the red zone. He’s a big, strong receiver with good ball skills. If the game is even remotely close in the end, Montgomery will most likely have had a huge game against a soft Utah defense.

4. Chris Harper – California
Harper is coming off of a 14 catch performance last weekend and wants to have a similar game this week against the 11th ranked team in the country. Cal is a heavy underdog which indicates that there will most likely be garbage time, which is always good for fantasy football receivers of the losing team.

5. Tevin Reese – Baylor
The only reason I like Reese over Goodley this week is his price tag. Both players are so similar and put up such similar numbers that its really a crap-shoot on who’s going to have the bigger game. Either way, Reese will have a big game against a washed up K-State team who couldn’t contain an Oklahoma State offense that is half as explosive as this Baylor offense.

6. L’Damian Washington – Missouri
It’s another crap-shoot here between Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham. I personally like Washington more this week because of his experience, which will be much-needed against a really good Georgia team. It will be high scoring and I expect Washington to have a great game.

7. Odell Beckham – LSU
Jarvis Landry hurt his foot last week against Mississippi State, but is still probable for this weeks game. Even if Landry does play, I like Beckham to have the better game of the two. This is a must-win for LSU and Beckham knows he’s gonna have to have a huge game if they want to win. I think he’ll do just that.

8. Donte Moncrief – Ole Miss
Texas A&M really doesn’t play defense, at all, and that’s what we love in fantasy football. Moncrief is big, physical, and hard to defend. Exactly what A&M has trouble with. This game is supposed to be one of the highest scoring games this week and Moncrief will have a big part in that.

9. Deontay Greenberry – Houston
This guy is a stud, and he’s only a sophomore. He has caught at least 6 passes in every game this year and has at least 140 yards or a TD in every game. All of those streaks should continue this week against a mediocre Memphis defense.

10. Dres Anderson – Utah
I love watching this guy. He runs good routes, and catches most everything that is thrown to him. He gets to face a Stanford D that’s giving up 260 yards and 2 TD’s through the air. I like Anderson’s chances to have a ridiculous game, especially since Utah will probably be playing from behind.

11. Chris Conley – Georgia
Conley is consistent. 5 receptions and a TD in each of his last three games, and that should continue through this week. Missouri isn’t too fond of playing defense and Georgia loves to score points. Add those together and fantasy footballers should get excited. Don’t be surprised if Conley has 10 catches and 2 TD’s this weekend.

12. Shaq Evans – UCLA
Alright Shaq, I hype you up every week and you never come through for me, so here’s your last chance. A super cheap price tag for the No.1 receiver in an explosive offense just draws me in, I can’t help it. UCLA has another juicy matchup against Cal, and Jordan James is out, which means they will probably throw quite a bite more. I really think Evans will finally have the game we’ve been waiting for.

13. Eric Ward – Texas Tech
I got to see Ward live last week when TTU traveled to Lawrence and dismantled my Jayhawks, and he’s the real deal. Incredible athlete with good hands in an explosive offense. Perfect equation for fantasy success. The best part is, they’re finally looking to get him involved!

14. Sterling Shepard – Oklahoma
Shepard’s production immediately increased when Blake Bell was named the starter. Well, his production will still be there when OU faces its arch rival Texas in the Red River Shootout, which is always a good game, and Shepard will have to step up and help Oklahoma to victory.

15. Quenton Bundrage – Iowa State
Bundrage has two catches of 65+ and just might get another against Texas Tech this week. ISU will probably be playing from behind and Bundrage is the only consistent receiver in this offense. I won’t be surprised if he gets another 100+ game.

If you have any questions, I’d love to answer them on twitter @TheJourdanCase

Stay tuned all season as we examine the top quarterbacks of the 2013 college football season to find out if they are “system QBs” or special talents.  Other articles in the series include:

Is Oregon’s Marcus Mariota just another Chip Kelly System QB?

Comparing AJ McCarron to Alabama QBs of the Nick Saban era

Johnny Manziel, System QBs, and the ghost of Case Keenum

What Kind of NFL Draft Prospect is Clemson QB Tajh Boyd?

Football fans have an odd way of remembering things; they remember the destination, but not the journey.  This is especially true when it comes to Texas QBs who have played under Mack Brown.

Look at Vince Young and Colt McCoy.  Longhorn fans undoubtedly remember these two as legendary quarterbacks who finished 2nd in the Heisman voting and led their teams to National Championship games.  For Vince Young, his superhuman performances in Pasedena against both Michigan and USC will live on forever.  For Colt McCoy, at the time of his graduation, he was the winning-est QB in college football history.  What you probably don’t remember about Young or McCoy is how they got to their legendary perches.

For Texas QB David Ash, people seem unsure of which way the arrow is pointing.  Can he become the next great Texas QB?  Or is he a seat warmer until Tyrone Swoopes is ready?  When considering Ash’s future, it’s important to remember that he is still a young quarterback, having played his 2012 season at age 20.  What if we compared Ash’s passing performance to how Colt McCoy and Vince Young looked at age 20?  The thought here is that quarterbacks of the same age, in relatively similar systems, should post similar numbers.  If a quarterback “outplays” his age/system cohort, then he might be a unique talent.  Note that the following stats are based on performance in key games against bowl-eligible opponents.

You might be surprised to see that Ash had the best passing stats, but would you believe me if I said he was similarly efficient as a dual threat QB?  Take a look at his season yards/touch performance, which is defined as (rush attempts + pass attempts)/total yards.  While Ash isn’t the same caliber runner as VY, it’s interesting to see him produce the same results on a per-touch basis.

So if Ash is indeed a precocious talent, what might his career trajectory look like?  Let’s take a look at Ash’s 2012 against the best performances of Vince Young and Colt McCoy, both of which occurred in their age 22 seasons.  For their efforts VY and Colt MyBoy finished 2nd in their respective Heisman races.

Okay, you got me, Ash wasn’t on par with those seasons…but was he that far off?  His outstanding 9.1 AYA is the sixth best of any 20 year old in my database and just a shade behind McCoy.

Proving his dual-threat merit, Ash performed nearly as well as Colt McCoy did in his Heisman runner-up campaign, which, again, he played at two years older than Ash.

What will become of David Ash in this turbulent season for the Longhorns?  Can he lead them to a Big 12 championship?  Can he stay healthy enough to make a difference?  Who knows.  What I can say is that he quietly had an outstanding 2012 season, which lead me to rank him my #5 Quarterback Prospect For the 2014 NFL Draft.  He’s numbers have been solid, if not spectacular, so far and it will be interesting to watch him play in spotlight games the next few weeks.  While it may sound crazy to put him in the same class as McCoy and Young, I think the numbers tell a story worth following.

If you thought this article was stupid, awesome, or somewhere in between, continue this conversation with me on Google+ or Twitter.

Play CFB Daily Fantasy Football at DraftStreet, DraftKings, Fanduel or Draftday!

Here are my Draft Street CFB daily rankings for week 6. I also have my own personal rankings for Fanduel. Comments or questions? Hit me up on twitter @TheJourdanCase, I’d be glad to answer them.

QB

1. Marcus Mariota
Colorado’s defense is giving up 300 passing yards per game, not to mention giving up 280 yards and 2 touchdowns to CENTRAL ARKANSAS. Mariota should be able to pick this defense apart, no problem. He’s always worth his price tag.

2. Braxton Miller
Braxton Miller is back and still feels like he has something to prove. Many people didn’t like the fact that Miller got the start over Guiton after his ridiculous performances while Miller was out. Well, Braxton is back and is facing a Northwestern defense that gave up 450 yards to Cal, with a freshman QB nowhere near the caliber of Miller. Look for Braxton to have a huge day.

3. Nathan Scheelhaase
A relative unkown coming in to the season, Scheelhaase has somewhat burst onto the scene. Coming off of a 5 TD performance against Miami (OH), Scheelhaase has the momentum and the offensive weapons to have another huge game against a good Big 10 opponent. Illinois is also a 10 point underdog, could be down late which means Scheelhaase gets to throw, throw, throw.

4. Teddy Bridgewater
The most polished passer in the nation playing against Temple, a team that has lost to Fordham and Idaho. I could stop there and that would be explanation enough. Though I do have fear of a blowout, Charlie Strong knows that Teddy B. is a Heisman candidate and isn’t afraid to help pad his stats.

5. Brett Hundley
Hundley is one of those players who might not be on all sites because his Bruins play on Thursday night, and it’s a shame. Brett is one of my personal favorites to watch when he’s out there slingin’ it around like a typical west coast offense. Hundley and UCLA face off against a Utah team led by Travis Wilson (another one of my favorites) in what should be a shootout.

6. Bryce Petty
Petty leads the nations most prolific offense, granted they haven’t played anybody, into battle against a solid West Virgina defense. Baylor probably won’t score 70 this week, but they could easily hang 42 with 4 TD passes from Hundley. This offense is explosive and fun to watch, and Petty is starting to turn heads in the Heisman race.

7. Tajh Boyd
For anyone who hasn’t watched them play, Clemson is good. Really good. Tajh Boyd has command over this offense and it is explosive. Coming off of an efficient, all around good-QB performance, Tajh is poised and ready to welcome Syracuse to the ACC with a beat down. 250 pass yards and 60 rush yards with 4 total TD’s isn’t out of the question.

8. Zach Mettenberger
1400 yards and 13 TD’s through 5 games and he’s still under priced on almost every site. With two NFL caliber receivers, Mettenberger is gonna continue to sling it. LSU isn’t normally known for its offense, but teams better take note. The combination of Mettenberger, Landry, and Beckham seems to be here to stay and wants to contend for a national championship

9. Blake Bell
The Bell-dozer is finally the starter in Norman! He’s 6’5″ 265 pounds, has a cannon for an arm, and runs a 4.7 40. The Sooners should dominate against a shaky TCU team and Blake Bell could easily steal the show.

10. Jameis Winston
If you’ve had the chance to watch this kid, you know he’s the real deal. Laser arm, good feet, solid decision making, and a stud WR. Jameis will have to take over this week in an ACC battle of Top 25 teams. The only reason I don’t have Winston ranked higher is Maryland’s solid defense, but I won’t be surprised if Winston is a top 3 QB when the week is over.

Value Plays:
Tyler Murphy, Dak Prescott, Tommy Rees, Gary Nova, Treyvone Boykin Tommy Armstrong Jr.

RB

1. Mike Davis
With Connor Shaw out, South Carolina isn’t going to be throwing the ball nearly as much, and with a running back as good as Mike Davis, why would you? Davis is one of the better backs in college football and he’s going up against a porous Kentucky defense giving up 200 yards and 2 TD’s per game on the ground. Mike Davis might be the entire Gamecock offense on Saturday.

2. Lache Seastrunk
In my opinion, the most talented back in the country. This guy is an incredible talent on an explosive offense. This game should get out of hand, but not so bad that the starters sit the second half, meaning more carries for Lache.

3. Zach Zwinak
Zwinak is an underrated talent on an underrated team. He doesn’t have incredible yardage numbers, but he also hasn’t had a ton of carries. He does, however, score a lot of touchdowns and Saturday’s matchup against a pathetic Indiana run defense should only help him out.

4. Todd Gurley
Another guy who is arguably the best back in the NCAA. He is a flat out beast, no way around it. Georgia should have no problem handling Tennessee and Gurley should have no problem putting up a great fantasy stat line.

5. Marion Grice
Definition of a dual threat running back. He’s an explosive runner, catches the ball out of the backfield, and even gets red zone targets. Coming off of a 4 TD performance against a solid USC defense, Grice has the momentum to have another huge game against a not good Notre Dame defense.

6. Byron Marshall
Deanthony Thomas is out, that means its Marshall time. He’s proven that he’s just as fast and explosive as any other back in the country, aside from his backfield counterpart. Oregon should blow Colorado out of the water and Marshall should get plenty of touches down the stretch. Don’t hesitate to play him just because he’s a backup.

7. Bishop Sankey
This guy is on another level right now. 5th in the country in rush yards with 607 yards in just 4 games, one of those games being against Idaho State, where he only carried the ball 4 times. Sankey would be ranked a lot higher, but Stanford has a tough defense and Washington will probably be playing catch up for most of the second half.

8. Ameer Abdullah
Taylor Martinez is out. This leaves Freshman QB Tommy Armstrong to lead the Huskers against a tough Big 10 opponent. Armstrong only threw the ball 15 times against South Dakota State. That could be because it was a blowout, but it also could be because the coaches don’t quite trust him yet. Look for Abdullah to carry most of the weight for this offense and have a big day.

9. Jeremy Hill
This guy is somewhat under priced everywhere except for DraftDay, who never seems to under price anyone. But Hill is a beast and has become the workhorse back in a great LSU offense. Mississippi St. should be able to hold its own in the first half, but after that, look for it to become the Jeremy Hill show.

10. Tyler Gafney
Gafney isn’t the type of back that’s going to get 25-30 carries in a game, but he will get 18-20 and will make the most of them. That being said, this might be the first game this year that Gafney does get more than 20 carries. It should be a dog fight down to the end and I expect Stanford to ride him down to the wire.

11. Jeff Scott
Ole Miss didn’t put up a single point last week against Alabama. They come out this week against Auburn who has given up over 300 yards on the ground over the last two weeks. Ole Miss should handle it’s business against the Tigers and let Jeff Scott get all the garbage time touches.

12. Jordan Hall
Hall is one of 5 running backs with 8 rushing TD’s this year. He came in to this season as part of what was expected to be a committee, and took the job all for himself. The explosive Ohio State offense should put the game out of reach with Hall scoring at least one, if not two or three touchdowns down the strech.

Value Plays: Tony Pierson, Senorise Perry, Trey Edmunds, James Poole, Johnathan Gray

WR

1. Jordan Matthews
Matthews is the best receiver in the country, hands down, and isn’t being priced like it. That might be because his QB isn’t the greatest, but the guy is second in the country in receptions and fourth in receiving yards. His lack of TD’s might concern some, but it’s only a matter of time until he goes off for 3 in a game and this week seems like the perfect time to do it. Vandy is a slight favorite in what should be a high scoring match up against a terrible Missouri pass defense. Matthews will get his.

2. Devante Parker
This guy is always a viable starter as long as Teddy Bridgewater is his QB. Has caught at least one TD in the first four games and will catch one, if not two on Saturday, along with 100+ yards. The best part? His price tag isnt through the roof.

3. Jalen Strong
If you haven’t figured out yet, I like to exploit poor defenses, and Notre Dame is just that. They’re giving up 231 yards per game through the air, not to mention that they’ve already given up 10 passing touchdowns! Strong hasn’t found the end zone a whole lot, but he’s the big, physical receiver that Notre Dame has trouble defending.

4. Allen Robinson
Robinson has gone over 120 yards in 3 out of the first 4 games, and I expect him to do it again. He’s the favorite target in a good offense. He’ll get his share of fantasy points in what looks to be a high scoring game up in Indiana.

5. Jarvis Landry
If you’ve heard commentators or analysts talk about this guy, the first thing they always say is “He’s an NFL receiver.” And they’re exactly right. He’s had 5 big games this year and he’s probably going to have another one against a Mississippi State team who will not be able to keep up with that high powered LSU offense.

6. Antawn Goodley/Tevin Reese
These guys are basically interchangeable. Bryce Petty is becoming one of the better QB’s in the country and he loves having two stud receivers. It’s hard to pick which one is going to have a bigger game, but they’re both good for a solid fantasy outing. It’s hard to go wrong.

7. Sammy Watkins
Possibly the most explosive receiver in the country. This guy is ridiculously fast and has a chance to score every time he touches the ball. Syracuse can’t contain him. Watch for Watkins to have a huge afternoon.

8. Odell Beckham
See: Jarvis Landry

9. Paul Richardson
You’re probably wondering why I have this guy ranked so low. Yes, he does catch a ton of passes and racks up a ton of yards, but his price tag is WAY too high, especially on a place like Draft Street where he’s $5,000 more than the next receiver. He’s probably not going to be on any of my teams, but he will be a good play if you can afford him.

10. Shaq Evans
Shaq is one of my personal favorites, I just like watching Pac-12 football for some reason, but he’s a viable fantasy option every single week. His only flaw is the lack of targets. UCLA has 20 different guys who have caught at least one pass this year and 6 different guys have caught a TD. Having said that, Evans is the deep threat on an explosive offense. He’s a better option in a tournament than a H2H or 50/50, but he’s still a good play.

11. Josh Stewart
Stewart went off last week. He made a statement and should now be the bonafide number 1 receiver on a high scoring offense. K-State has given up at least 24 point in three of its four games, Oklahoma State should double that with this offense and Josh Stewart should be a big part of that.

12. Michael Campanaro
Campanaro is the Wes Welker of college football. Short, stocky white guy who runs great routes and catches pretty much anything near him. Considering Wake Forest will probably be playing from behind, Campanaro should have a pretty good game. He did, however, have a pretty miserable game against NC State last year. Hopefully he comes back strong against them for his Senior season.

13. Darius Joseph
Third in the country in receptions and the guy is only a Sophomore. He’s the real thing and is only going to get better. SMU likes to throw it and Rutgers doesn’t like to defend the pass. Joseph is ready for a breakout game.

14. Jeremy Gallon
My biggest problem with Gallon is Devin Gardner. A lot of people like Gardner, I’m not a fan. He throws too many interceptions and just makes too many stupid decisions. A great wide receiver can only be great if his offense can keep the ball. But, when Michigan can keep the ball and Gardner is playing well, Gallon is a stud and will perform as such.

15. Dres Anderson
And yet another favorite of mine, surprise surprise. Anderson is a stud and gets better with every game. This game against UCLA is going to be a great shootout and I wont be surprised if Dres catches 10 passes and scores 2 TD’s.

Value Plays:
Devin Smith, Kenny Bell, Sean Fitzgerald, Martavis Bryant, Sammie Coates

TE

1. Jace Amaro
The only TE who is really worth a play every single week is Jace Amaro. He’s a freak of nature who will be a stud in the NFL in a few years. He’s one of Mayfield’s favorite targets and he racks up yards after the catch with his size

Other plays:
Eric Ebron, Ted Bosler, Evan Ingram, Nick O’Leary, Dan Vitale, Devin Funchess, Troy Niklas

Stay tuned all season as we examine the top quarterbacks of the 2013 college football season to find out if they are “system QBs” or special talents.  Other articles in the series include:

Is Oregon’s Marcus Mariota just another Chip Kelly System QB?

Comparing AJ McCarron to Alabama QBs of the Nick Saban era

Johnny Manziel, System QBs, and the ghost of Case Keenum

—

According to NFLdraftscout.com Tajh Boyd is the #1 ranked QB in the 2014 senior class.  While I don’t think Boyd is a bad quarterback, I have him significantly lower in my rankings of the best quarterback prospects for the 2014 NFL Draft.  This discrepancy led me to wonder if I am off base, so I decided to put the Clemson QB under the microscope.

The first thing to know about Tajh Boyd is that he is playing the 2013 season at age 23.  This puts him at risk to be struck down by the curse of the old quarterback.  To put his play in context with guys who are currently in the NFL, I went in search of quarterbacks with similar metrics and who played their second-to-last college season at age 22, like Boyd.  Here is the cohort I came up with, which consists of Boyd and his four closest comparables–two “higher performing” and two “lower performing”.

Based on our current knowledge of these players, the range of outcomes for Boyd looks to be “serviceable starter” to “career backup”.  But we haven’t gotten into any of the metrics yet, so let’s see if those can help inform our outlook.

For this exercise we’ll be looking at performance in games played against bowl competition.  We don’t care about the gaudy stats that these guys post against FCS cupcakes; we want to see them competing against strong teams.  Again, we’re looking at how these guys looked in their age 22 seasons, which, in all five cases, was their second-to-last college season.  First we observe their frequency of multi-touchdown passing performances and their completion percentages.

In some ways, this chart explains the problem with staying in college for your age 23 season.  Colt McCoy was PHENOMENAL as a junior at age 22, but he stayed in college another year, regressed, and was never able to regain that developmental momentum.  On the flip side, a guy like Andy Dalton looks terrible in this cohort, but actually graded highest for me since he made significant improvements in his senior year, while the others back-peddled.  For Tajh Boyd, he looks to be in the middle of this cohort.  There are some positive signs but nothing to get overly excited about.

If there’s reason to get excited about Boyd, it’s because he had a cohort leading TD%.  Unfortunately, he also has a cohort leading INT%.  When you’re watching Tajh this year, keep an on his propensity to throw interceptions.  If he can’t be trusted to take care of the ball against ACC defenders, I would be scared to see him quarterback an NFL offense.  Further, I wonder if his turnover-prone ways might cost Clemson during their National Title chase.

If we roll this information into a simple-to-understand number that represents the value of these quarterbacks, we get the following results, based on their age 22 seasons.  This is their adjust yards per attempt–approximately how many yards their team gains every time they throw the ball.

Boyd’s age 22 season performance puts him in the middle of this unexciting cohort.  While his 2013 performance still remains to be seen, the best case scenario appears to be Andy Dalton, who is a serviceable starter, but probably has a limited upside.  However, to even be considered at that level–let alone the #1 QB in his class–Boyd would need to take a significant step forward to match Dalton’s 9.8 AYA.

Notice how everyone but Dalton took a big step back in their final college season, which illustrates why it’s important to enter the NFL when your stock is highest.  That lost year of NFL coaching and the decline in performance is killer when it comes to developing into a potential franchise QB.

If you want to make the argument that Tajh Boyd has “dual threat” capabilities, I would direct you to the following chart, which shows performance based on a per-touch basis (total yards from scrimmage divided by total run+pass attempts).  Boyd is about as efficient as Tyler Wilson and Kirk Cousins…not exactly dynamic play makers.

While there is still more evidence to collect on Tajh Boyd, my outlook is that he never amounts to more than a fringe starter in the NFL.  If he is to become more than that, significant strides need to be apparent during his senior year.

If you thought this article was stupid, awesome, or somewhere in between, continue this conversation with me on Google+ or Twitter.

Stay tuned all season as we examine the top quarterbacks of the 2013 college football season to find out if they are “system QBs” or special talents.  Other articles in the series include:

Is Oregon’s Marcus Mariota just another Chip Kelly System QB?

Comparing AJ McCarron to Alabama QBs of the Nick Saban era

This article is going to make me unpopular.  Proceed at your own risk.

In preparation for the 2013 college football season, I was researching the best quarterback prospects for the 2014 NFL Draft.  When it came to Johnny Manziel, I was a bit surprised to find him outside my top 10 after using my evaluation method.  I decided to dig a little deeper and find comparable seasons to help put his 2012 in context.  Interestingly enough, I found Case Keenum as a comparison.  As you may recall, Manziel’s current coach, Kevin Sumlin, was Keenum’s coach at Houston from 2008-2011, so I became very curious about these similarities.  Upon further review, it has become clear to me why Manziel is a system quarterback and why he SHOULD BE outside the top 10 QB prospects for the 2013 season and beyond.

Your first objection is likely to be “Case Keenum played in Conference USA and Johnny Manziel played in the SEC.”  Astute observation.  To reduce your concerns about the level of competition, we will focus solely on the games in which Keenum lead his CUSA team against BCS level talent (read: he was overmatched).  Over the course of 44 games in which Keenum was on the field with Sumlin as head coach, seven came against BCS competition.

2008 @ Oklahoma State

2009 @ Oklahoma State

2009 vs Texas Tech

2009 @ Mississippi State

2010 @UCLA (torn ACL in this game, so it will only count as .5 in the average calculations)

2011 vs UCLA

2011 vs Penn State

Case Keenum played 6.5 games vs BCS foes with Sumlin as his head coach.  Now, let’s look at Manziel.

To get the best idea of Manziel’s talents, we will look at his performance against bowl eligible teams from the 2012 season; we learn nothing by seeing what he did against South Carolina State or Sam Houston State.  In total, he played against eight bowl eligible teams in 2012.  This works out nicely since Keenum’s sample size is 6.5 games, so they’re in the same ballpark.

The Passing Game

The first things that jumped out to me were the similarities in passing efficiency between the two players.

Across the board the stats are strikingly similar.  I’d probably argue that Keenum is the more talented passer.  This leads me to wonder: if case Keenum was considered a system quarterback with insufficient arm strength to play in the NFL, why are some praising Johnny Manziel as a revolutionary quarterback?  On two different occasions Keenum passed for more than 400 yards per game in a season and finished in the top eight in Heisman voting both times.  However, he never stood a chance at winning because he earned the system QB label that had loomed over Andre Ware, Colt Brennan, and many others from small school, high octane programs.  However, when a big school decides to run “a system” and it works in a BCS conference, all the sudden it is legitimate?  Why the double standard?

The Running Game

Where Manziel makes most of his hay is when he takes off on the ground.  No doubt that he is a productive runner, but let’s see how he compares to Keenum.

Ok, you got me, Manziel is a better runner than Keenum.  That said, Keenum’s 5.5 YPC isn’t too shabby and his rush TD% is respectable.  It’s interesting to me to think that Manziel’s rushing prowess may actually diminish my thoughts about his passing efficiency.  If defenses are truly scared of Manziel’s legs and are playing to stop his rushing efforts, wouldn’t that create more favorable matchups in the secondary?  Just a thought.

The Overall Game

Keenum was more of a passer and Manziel was more of a runner, but overall, they both saw about the same number of total touches per game. And what did they do with those touches?

The numbers tell a story that Manziel and Keenum have performed similarly in Kevin Sumlin’s system.  Strikingly, they posted almost identical yards/touch numbers.  Despite the variations in run/pass balance, the bottom line is that the run/pass efficiency metrics look very similar.  Now, consider that they are almost the same size (6` tall, 210 lbs) and that they are both products of the Kevin Sumlin system.  Now, ask yourself this: why does the mainstream media (I’m looking at you, Mel Kiper) think that Johnny Manziel is a first round quarterback, but Case Keenum went undrafted?  It seems to me that we are being sold down the river on Johnny Manziel’s status as a high end prospect.  I’m not buying it.

If you thought this article was stupid, awesome, or somewhere in between, continue this conversation with me on Google+ or Twitter.

Stay tuned all season as we examine the top quarterbacks of the 2013 college football season to find out if they are “system QBs” or special talents.  Other articles in the series include:

Comparing AJ McCarron to Alabama QBs of the Nick Saban era

Johnny Manziel, System QBs, and the ghost of Case Keenum

Once upon a time, a young man named Johnny Manziel (what ever happened to him?) committed to playing football at the University of Oregon.  At the time, both he and Hawaiian sensation Marcus Mariota were set to compete for the starting QB role in Chip Kelly’s offense.  Manziel ended up switching his commitment, leaving Mariota to assume the starting QB job in 2012.  Ultimately, the Flyin’ Hawaiian posted one of the top seasons in America.  The question, however, is whether or not Mariota is just another Chip Kelly system QB, or if he is a special talent.

For the sake of this exercise, we’ll compare Marcus Mariota’s first year as a starter in Chip Kelly’s offense to the debut seasons of other Oregon QBs.  Meet the contestants:

2009 Jeremiah Masoli, Age 21, First team All Conference, Zero Heisman votes, NFL undrafted

2010 Darron Thomas, Age 20, Second team All Conference, Zero Heisman votes, NFL undrafted

2012 Marcus Mariota, Age 19, First team All Conference. Zero Heisman votes, NFL TBD.

It’s interesting to note that all three of these quarterbacks led their teams to BCS bowls, yet received no national acclaim in the form of Heisman votes.  Specifically, Mariota and Thomas both ranked in the top 17 in passing efficiency, so there was plenty of reason to believe their throwing ability was/is legit.  Nonetheless, no respect and, for Masoli and Thomas, no NFL future.

Let’s compare the performances of these quarterbacks in games in which they faced bowl eligible competition to see what trends we can find.  While all three players threw the ball 26-31 times per game, Mariota was clearly the most effective passer in terms of completion percentage.  As I believe that quarterback age matters for NFL prospects, it’s fascinating that Mariota played 2012 at just 19 years old.

With Mariota being the young QB with the high completion percentage, you might assume that they played it safe with him.  What you’ll see below is a chart that shows Mariota throwing the highest percentage of TD passes, indicating that they did trust him to finish drives in the red zone.  Impressively, he was the least turnover prone of the group.  “Managing the game” is a phrase usually associated with veteran QBs, but here Mariota proves to be a decision maker who is wise beyond his years.

Unsurprisingly, the sum of these parts–high completion percentage, strong TD:INT rations–leads Mariota to achieve the highest adjusted yards per attempt of any of Chip Kelly’s quarterbacks.  Regarding the explosive dual-threat tendencies that Mariota has displayed, he posted the highest yards per touch (rush yards + pass yards /touches) of any of these quarterbacks.  In fact, Mariota 7.8 yards per touch ranked just a fraction behind Manziel’s 8.1 yards per touch, which resulted in a Heisman trophy for Johnny Football.

It’s easy to tell that Marcus Mariota is the most special talent of these Chip Kelly/Oregon quarterbacks.  Moreover, he is the most accomplished passer, the youngest, and the most physically/athletically gifted.  In fact, I have him ranked as the #6 quarterback prospect for the 2014 NFL draft.

Think about it like this…he’s a year younger, four inches taller, and nearly as explosive of a dual-threat quarterback as Johnny Manziel.  Oh, and Mariota appears to be much less of a headache.  Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself here, but I think his upside is greater than Colin Kaepernick’s as a game changing NFL prospect.  It will be fascinating to watch Mariota in 2013 as he leads the Ducks in their National Championship campaign without Chip Kelly as the head coach.

If you thought this article was stupid, awesome, or somewhere in between, continue this conversation with me on Google+ or Twitter.

Stay tuned all season as we examine the top quarterbacks of the 2013 college football season to find out if they are “system QBs” or special talents.  Other articles in the series include:

Is Oregon’s Marcus Mariota Just Another Chip Kelly System QB?

Johnny Manziel, System QBs, and the ghost of Case Keenum

When you read the phrase “System quarterback” what comes to mind?  Is it Colt Brennan?  Is it Tim Tebow?  Is it Johnny Manziel?  Have you ever considered that maybe Alabama quarterbacks of the Nick Saban era are “system quarterbacks”?  Think about it, they consistently have elite offensive lines and amazing running backs.  The quarterback has all the time in the world to survey the defense and make the pass.  The run game is almost always the first priority for both the Tide and the defenses who are scheming against them.  With this in mind, let’s examine AJ McCarron’s Alabama career to decipher if he is an elite quarterback or just another QB succeeding in the Nick Saban “system”.

To establish a baseline for AJ’s career trajectory, let’s compare his 2011 season to what John Parker Wilson and Greg McElroy accomplished in their terms as Alabama QBs.  As a reminder, we are ONLY looking at games against bowl eligible opponents.  We don’t care about results posted in sacrificial-lamb games.  In this first chart you can see that McCarron completed a significantly higher percentage of his passes.  However, it looks like he was the safest of the passers, posting the shortest yards/attempt and yards/completion figures.  He was dinking and dunking.

To further the point that AJ played it safe in 2011, notice how his TD ratios were about in line with historical Saban/Alabama QBs, but his INT rate was so much lower.  Connecting the dots with the previous chart, he was not threatening defenses downfield, but instead was throwing underneath routes which would naturally lead to a lower INT rate.

Now that we’ve established where AJ McCarron came from, so to speak, let’s see how he evolved from 2011 to 2012.  To this point, AJ has looked like the typical Saban QB.  Protected by an elite run game, AJ’s job was not to win games, but was to protect the ball and let everyone else do the heavy lifting.

In 2012, the kid-gloves came off McCarron and an elite quarterback started to blossom.  Note that the completion percentage remains remarkably high, but now he is being trusted to throw the ball further downfield.  His yards/attempt spiked by more than one yard per throw and his yards/completion jumped by two yards per throw.  On a micro level that seems like no big deal, but over the course of the game that’s 25-30 extra yards, which means more first downs, which means more time of possession, which means a fresher defense, which means…”uh oh” for everybody else.  (Note the Saban-era ranks in parenthesis, out of six QB seasons)

Seeing as AJ McCarron was throwing the ball further down field, one would expect his INT rate to increase–which it did–but it remained low enough to still be the second best rate of a Saban/Alabama QB.  The interesting thing, however, is that McCarron was trusted to FINISH drives.  In 63% of key games, he threw for multiple TDs, the best of the Saban/Alabama era.  Similarly, his TD rate and TD:INT ratio were by far the best.  In 2012 Nick Saban trusted his QB more than ever before to throw downfield and to finish drives, and AJ McCarron delivered exceptional results.

AJ McCarron is undoubtedly the best QB that Nick Saban has worked with and should be seen as one of the best QBs in America for the 2013 college football season.  I’m a believer in AJ, which is why I ranked him my #2 quarterback prospect for the 2014 NFL Draft.  When you watch Alabama this year, keep an eye on McCarron to see if he is pushing the ball downfield and finishing drives with TD passes.  When combined with his exceptional track record of limiting turnovers, those two factors will continue to be the keys to AJ’s campaign to become a Heisman contender and first round draft pick.

If you thought this article was stupid, awesome, or somewhere in between, continue this conversation with me on Google+ or Twitter.

By far, one of the easiest schedules I’ve seen this year, Louisville is coming back from a tremendous season capped off by the Cardinals victory over the Florida Gators in in the Sugar Bowl.  Enter Teddy Bridgewater, one of the nation’s top quarterbacks and prospects for the 2014 NFL Draft who is coming off a monster season (3,718 yards, 27 Touchdowns) and a receiving corp that any team in the country would die to have.  The only big replacements needed are two offensive lineman, which should be filled by last year’s backups and Cameron Fraser and Skylar Lacy, of this year’s recruiting class.  There’s no reason to think that Louisville can’t go 12-0 in 2013, with their only true battles taking place at home against the Ohio Bobcats (August 31) and at Cincinnati (November 5).

Expect Harry Douglas to have a monster season and Terry Bridgewater will lead the Cardinals to their easiest division title in recent memory.  I don’t see Louisville reaching a title game but I’ll expect them to crash the BCS come January.

The big test for Ohio State will be refilling a defensive line that’s missing all four starters from 2012.  However, the Buckeyes are dealing with the number three recruiting class in the nation, with twenty-four commits including Mike Mitchell, highly touted linebacker out Plano, Texas.

I’ll be interested to see how Urban Meyer attempts to balance the total offense this season, because although Ohio State averaged 242.3 rushing yard per game (10^th in the NCAA), they only averaged 181.5 passing yards per game (105^th).  Ohio State looks to have too much talent, aided by the ability to reach a bowl game this season, look for Braxton Miller to take the Ohio State into Pasadena at season’s end.