Tonight’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Houston Texans is one of the rare games where we get a preview of a potential playoff matchup, two top teams in a conference, multiple fantasy football starters that will swing playoff matchup’s, and a down right intriguing game. The New England Offense is posting historical numbers in efficiency and Belichick’s relentless attack will be tested against Houston’s stout run defense. While Houston has the reputation of an elite defense, it really is their run defense that is elite. With Johnathan Joseph out, or playing with a gimp leg, they have been vulnerable to the big play. Losing star linebacker Brian Cushing has hurt their intermediate passing defense as well. The Texans offense isn’t anything to sneeze at either. The dominant run blocking scheme, as well as having a fluid and patient runner in Arian Foster allows them to have an entire offense built off of play action. While Aqib Talib has played well since being a Patriot, he has historically struggled against protypical number 1 wide receivers, allowing the likes of Hakeem Nicks to physically dominate him for an entire game. With these puzzle piece’s in play, we need to analyze both offense’s thoroughly.
New England Patriots: One piece of the offense allows them to function the way they do: Tom Brady. Without Brady, this offense simply doesn’t run the same way. Belichick has finally found a runner that he is satisfied with however, in Stevan Ridley. Ridley isn’t particularly explosive, but he is durable and has fixed some fumbling issues that were plaguing his young career. Against this tough Texans run defense, it is going to be important for Ridley to take what is blocked and do his best to wear the opposing front 7 out. I have a feeling that Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen are going to be utilized more in this game in order to spread the Texans out and get the offense into hurry up mode. It is easy to envision a scenario where the Patriots run around 90 offensive plays without breaking a sweat.
With injuries to Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, the passing game has had to undergo a rapid transformation. With Brandon Lloyd being a relative non-factor and Brady simply not trusting him, the Pats have gone back to their 2011 short and intermediate passing game. Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker should both have around 10 catches and 15 targets in tonight’s game. It will be interesting to see how Brady adjusts with the loss of Edelman, as we haven’t seen a full gameplan without him and Gronkowski. J.J Watt poses a significant threat to the Patriots offensive line, so don’t be surprised to see lots of 2 tight end sets with Daniel Fells of Visanthe Shiancoe occupying Gronkowski’s previous position.
Houston Texans: The Patriots secondary is still typically Patriots level terrible, and as a result, this game is going to be on Matt Schaub. Foster will have his part and get his 20 carries as a way to set up the play action game, but the outcome of this game is going to be decided by Matt Schaub. To be an elite quarterback in the NFL, you have to be able to win the shoot outs. Schaub proved capable of doing so against Matt Stafford and even the immortal Chad Henne, both games in overtime. If the game script goes anything like it should, with the play of both teams secondaries, Schaub should be hooking up with Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, James Casey, Lestar Jean, Kevin Walter and and 9 other white guys that Houston has as pass catchers. Schaub and Gary Kubiak have developed a very intelligent play action system that operates from their famous stretch running play. Forcing New England’s linebackers into mismatched coverages and making their secondary unsure as to weather to bite on the run is going to give the Houston passing game the space they need to operate. Additionally, as previously mentioned, Talib struggles with larger wide outs and Andre Johnson is as strong, as tall and as talented as they come. He could easily have a field day. Further more, with their heavy use of the play action, don’t be surprised to see a deep bomb to the likes of Kevin Walter or James Casey in the third quarter after Schaub and Foster have lulled the New England D asleep. While I like New England’s chances in the game, their defense has it cut out for them.
Final Prediction: New England 38, Houston 28
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