Giovani Bernard was an interesting prospect for me to watch. The former Tar Heel can usually be found in the top 3 running backs for most draft sites after a very productive career at the University of North Carolina. He’s built like a Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew, but he doesn’t have the ability to run over defenders nor the speed of those backs. He’s a “tweener” running back; I don’t see him as being strong enough to be a power back, nor quick enough to be a smaller, shifty back.

Giovani Bernard vs Virginia Tech (Courtesy of DraftBreakdown)

My biggest problem with Bernard is his speed. If you’re going to be a small running back in the NFL, you better be a speed demon. Here’s a table comparing Bernard to some of the starting running backs around 200 pounds:

*All Combine numbers from nflcombineresults.com, all Pro Day numbers from nfldraftscout.com. Bold denotes Pro Day numbers.

Side Note: Speed Score was invented by Bill Barnwell, formerly of Football Outsiders, and the Agility Score is the brainchild of Rotoviz and ProFootballFocus writer Shawn Siegele. Jon Moore’s article on Jordan Roberts inspired the Explosion Score. I recommend you read those pieces for more insight on what these numbers mean. Chris Johnson and C.J. Spiller could’ve been included in this table, however they were slightly smaller and waaaaaaay faster. It seemed prudent to remove them.

This is semi-damning for Bernard. He has the lowest Speed Score of the 4 backs in the table (100 is considered average). McCoy’s measureables are so bad it makes me think that he was dogging it, or simply wasn’t prepared. The closest comparison height/weight wise for Bernard would be Ray Rice, although Rice is faster, stronger (23 reps vs 19), & quicker according to the measurables. I think the best case of Bernard is that he becomes LeSean McCoy, but I have reservations that he will. You can argue that since 40’s run on pro days tend to be faster, McCoy & Bernard are probably the same speed, and as we all know, McCoy has been a very successful NFL running back. I don’t think Bernard is that quick, although their Agility Scores directly contradict that notion.

There are certain facets of his game that project well to the pro level. He’s a great receiver out of the backfield, having caught 92 passes over the last 2 years. He uses his hands and generally doesn’t let the ball get to his body. He has decent speed, and when he gets in the open field, he has an extra gear and can really pull away.

Surprisingly, he was able to grind between the tackles fairly well in college, but I question how well he’ll be able to do that in the NFL. Bernard displays good vision, and almost always chooses the right hole. He uses his small size to his advantage, squirting through small openings in the line. He can be arm tackled, and in one game I watched a defensive tackle grab his arm and drag him out of bounds. He can’t break tackles or move the pile, and has no chance of being a goal line back in the NFL. Despite his small size and general ineffectiveness at being a physical back, he’s not afraid to lower his shoulder.

Giovani Bernard vs NC State (Courtesy of DraftBreakdown)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_frTZ6weTQ

There are several troubling things when watching Bernard play. While at times he can be shifty & elusive, he does not win 1 on 1 battles at the rate he should be. I saw him stutter step defenders several times, to no avail. He got tackled 1 on 1 by defensive tackles, safeties, and linebackers alike. The former Tar Heel isn’t a technically sound pass blocker. He got away with only cut blocking in college, but at some point he’ll need to learn to stand up and deliver a punch. Bernard is a willing blocker, and that bodes well for his development.

The problem will Bernard is that he’s not strong or big enough to be a power back, and he’s not fast enough to be a speed back. I have major concerns as to how this will translate into the NFL. Because of this, Bernard isn’t going to be any higher than #3 in my running back rankings. There is a significant chance that his upside is capped as a change of pace option only. Based on pure talent alone, I would take Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael, and Jonathan Franklin before him. Their eventual NFL landing spots may change that, but I think Bernard is a big enough risk that I’ll have trouble drafting him in the top 4 with the studly wide receiver options that will be available.

There is a dichotomy between the numbers and what I saw on tape. In the end, I’m going to side with my gut. If you think that Bernard can become McCoy, then I think he’s absolutely worth a top 4 pick, and will be a steal at #2 depending on where Eddie Lacy is drafted. I think that’s very unlikely to happen; he’s much closer to being an okay or solid NFL running back than being a great one. He will likely be a very good receiving option, I just question his ability to carry the load. This article is not meant to suggest that all running backs with a Speed Score under 100 are NFL flops, or that every high scoring Speed Score back is a stud. The numbers are simply useful for comparing prospect to prospect.

NFL Draft Outlook: I see Bernard as a slightly quicker Johnathan Franklin, who I can get later in the draft. If I needed a backfield receiving option, Bernard would be a good choice. I’d love to see him in a Packers uniform.

Fantasy Football Outlook: In dynasty, you’ll likely be selecting him top 4, and with his upside capped, I’d pass. You can take one of the stud wideouts early, then grab Johnathan Franklin, Le’Veon Bell, or Christine Michael when it comes back around to your pick. They all have the same, or even more, potential to become a starting running back.