This piece should really be titled “Le’Veon Bell: A Love Affair,” but I’ll keep it professional. When watching Le’Veon Bell on film, one can only feel sorry for these poor defenders who continuously try stopping this Mack truck of a human being. The former Spartan is a physically imposing monster, standing at 6’1” and 230 pounds. If you look at any major NFL draft site, you’ll typically find Bell outside the top 5 backs, and that’s a mistake. In my opinion, Bell is one of the top backs in this class.

Le’Veon Bell versus Iowa (courtesy of DraftBreakdown)

Looking at workout numbers for last decade plus, there’s an interesting comparison for Bell:

They differ in several interesting ways. Most notably, Gerhart is faster and more explosive, but Bell has a much better short shuttle time, which shows up on film. You may be thinking “Why should I care about this white dude from Stanford? What has he done in this league?” Gerhart was actually a mid-second round pick in 2010, and filled in very well for an injured Adrian Peterson in 2011. From week 11 on, he had 92 carries for 431 yards and 1 touchdown, with 19 catches for 136 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s 4.7 yards per carry on a team quarterbacked by a rookie Christian Ponder; that’s really incredibly efficient running. Even their college stats are eerily similar:

Gerhart narrowly outpaces Bell with 5.2 yards per carry versus Bells 5.0, although the difference between the two can likely be explained by the quarterbacks: Gerhart played with Andrew Luck at Stanford, and Bell played his final year with Andrew Maxwell, after losing Kirk Cousins to the NFL Draft in 2012. Detractors will point out his 4.7 yards per carry average last season, however the Michigan State passing game took a nosedive without Cousins. The Spartans dropped 10 points in completion percentage, 0.8 touchdowns per game, and 42 yards passing per game (stats courtesy of Sports-Reference). They needed Bell to perform more than ever, and he put the team on his shoulders.

Watching film on Bell was a real treat. He shows patience behind his blocks, and waits for holes to open up. He doesn’t have that explosive first step (which does show up in his measurables), but he’s able to accelerate quickly and move at top speed through the hole. Bell did not fuble once in 749 career touches; That is almost unheard of. For a guy who ran a 4.6, 40 he showed impressive speed to the edge. Bell presents a huge target for defenders to hit, but it doesn’t matter. Rarely does a play go by where he’s not bulldozing a defender. On multiple occasions, he carried 2, 3, or even 4 defenders several yards. He falls forward every single time, usually after he delivers one of his punishing blows. I saw great strength from the former Spartan. He uses a stiff arm very effectively, and against Iowa in 2012, I watched as a linebacker tried to tackle him, and Bell literally threw him out of bounds with his forearm. For a back standing above 6”, I thought he showed a great ability to get lower than defenders. He has a deep understanding of leverage concepts. My favorite segment of Bell’s game is his feet. For a 6’1”, 230 pound bruiser, he has amazing foot speed. He executed sharp and precise cuts behind the line of scrimmage, and has a devastating foot fake. He sets up defenders with his hard fakes, and then leaves them executing their best Manti-Te’o-versus-Alabama impression. Against Wisconsin in 2011, he lined up in the slot and beat a linebacker with a crisp route, very impressive for such a large back.

The biggest concern with rookie running backs is pass protection. Can’t do it? Won’t play. I think Bell is a very adequate pass blocker. In the 3 games I watched, he surrendered 1 sack in pass protection. Far too often he goes for the cut block when he should use his size and strength to stop defenders in their tracks. The few times he used proper technique, defenders were stoned when they came in contact with him. He’s far too big and strong to be moved when he digs himself in. With a little NFL coaching, he could become great in this area.

As much as I love Le’Veon, there are some troubling things I saw on film. The biggest of which is his mentality as a big back. Bell loves to beat up defenders and toss them around like rag dolls, but sometimes, he starts thinking like a small back, and that’s where he gets into trouble. He’ll run to the edge, then try to reverse the field, which he can’t get away with. Due to his hulking physique, he’ll break a tackle in the backfield, and instead of just going down, he’ll continue backwards trying to make something happen. On perimeter runs, he needs to knife it upfield instead of continuing he bounce it outside. He got away with a little bit of that in college, but that’s not going to fly in the pros.

As a receiver, I think Bell could use a little work. He caught 30+ passes his last 2 years at Michigan State, but he had a few drops in the games I watched. If he gets hit while making a catch, it usually results in a drop. His Agility Score suggests he will perform well as a receiver.

Le’Veon Bell versus Wisconsin (2011, courtesy of DraftBreakdown)

Overall, Bell is one of the most underrated prospects of the draft. A big back like himself just shouldn’t be able to move the way he does. If I had to make a comparison, Bell is a faster, stronger version of Stevan Ridley, or a verrrrrrrrry slightly slower version of Mikel Leshoure with more quickness. Ridley was a 3^rd round pick, and Leshoure was a 2^nd round pick, and an exciting prospect before he tore his Achilles and started swallowing dimebags. A frequent criticism is that Bell won’t break many long runs at the next level, something I respectfully disagree with. Ridley ranked 15^th in ProFootballFocus’ Breakaway Percentage statistic (subscription required), which calculates the percent of carries that resulted in runs over 15 yards. I don’t think anyone would argue that Stevan Ridley is a better athlete than Le’Veon Bell, and I fail to see why Ridley can have success in the NFL and Bell can’t.

NFL Draft Outlook: I have a gut feeling that some NFL team will take Bell earlier than the 4^th to 5^th round that is being projected. If my team was built around the power run game, I would love to grab Bell in the 3^rd round, although I think he could slip into the 2^nd round come draft day. There is 3 down potential here.

Fantasy Outlook: Landing spot is going to be very crucial in determining his redraft value. For dynasty, Bell is a bargain waiting to happen. One writer for DynastyLeagueFootball.com has Bell ranked as the 11^th best back, and in a recent mock draft (subscription required), he slipped all the way to the back of the second round. There are two very possible scenarios in my head regarding Bell. In the first, some old NFL head coach sees him knocking around his defense in practice, gets a hard on for old school power football and gives him 350 carries. In the second, Bell is drafted to backup a current starter, then proceeds to vulture all of his touchdowns for the foreseeable future. For our sake, let’s hope it’s the first.