Next in line of the Sports Wunderkind Player Evaluations is the troubled Marquess Wilson.
Strengths
-Great height/speed combination.
-Ball tracking ability on longer throws
-Snatches the ball out of the air on crossing routes
-Surprising agility for a taller player
Weaknesses
-Very, very inconsistent hands, especially in traffic.
-Some questions about attitude/intangibles
-Not as efficient in the redzone as you’d want someone his size to be
-Gets pushed off his route and quits fighting on longer routes
Metric Evaluation
The maddening quality of Wilson’s game reminded me of one player more than anything: James Jones. I don’t think that they have a similar playing style and certainly are not physical comps for one another. Despite that, I decided to include Jones’ numbers through the College Career Graphs with Wilson, Markus Wheaton and Justin Hunter. Hunter was included as a very similar size comp for Wilson and Wheaton is ranked by many analysts in a similar area to where Wilson is. Below is a graph representing the Market Share of Touchdowns for these wide receivers.
Wilson is clearly superior to the much higher ranked Hunter. As Coleman Kelly stated on our podcast the other day, the Hunter hype is very much unwarranted. Wilson is similarly sized and apparently more talented version at a much cheaper price. Wilson showed a progression that Wheaton was unable to represent in this arena and was in the area of Jones.
Yards Per Target
Yards per target doesn’t create quite the pretty picture that Market Share of Yards does. Hunter clearly outpaces Wilson, even though Wilson was better than Wheaton and even Jones. What this would seem to indicate is that all of the screen pass targets that Wilson got in the scheme of Washington State’s offense.
In general, the metrics paint a picture that Wilson is not as inefficient as the film would possibly suggest. I was worried that when I started digging into this numbers, this electrifying player just wouldn’t stand up to mathematical observation. Fortunately, that is not the case.
Film Observation
I legitimately got upset watching Wilson play multiple times. A brilliant screen pass would be followed by Wilson losing a ball on a deep route. He is incredibly tall, and allows him to get to balls that many other receivers simply can’t, but on deeper routes his lack of weight and strength meant that he could get pushed off of his routes. The most maddening thing that I observed was the consistency of Wilson’s hands. His catching ability would allow him to leap up and grab a touchdown out of the in between two defenders while the ball hit and his facemask, but mysteriously fail him when he had to make simply sideline catches.
What drew me to Wilson in the first place was obviously his height. Receivers that tall often have the ability to be real red zone weapons. I was surprised however to see that one of the things Wilson did the best in was the screen game. There was one play in particular against San Diego State where Wilson took a screen pass 80 yards all the way to score. On the play, he caught the ball perfectly, read 4 blocks appropriately, side stepped on the sideline like a running back and scored with ease.
This perfectly illuminates Wilson’s future. If he didn’t have that lateral agility and decision making needed to be useful in the open field, then he will just be a part time player and would just bounce around a few teams before an early retirement. However, if he learns how to use those skills at an NFL level to be efficient on screens, third down and in the red zone, he has a chance of being a really solid NFL wide receiver.
Fantasy Football Outlook
Wilson’s fantasy football future is very situationally dependent. If he does somewhere with a mediocre quarterback and offensive coordinator, he probably will never develop into the weapon he could be. However, if he is drafted by a team like the Saints that really need a multi-talented wide receiver and have the intelligence and technique to develop him, he becomes a pretty solid dynasty rookie pick that will surely come undervalued. We will know more after the draft, but until then, keep your eyes open.
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