Stay tuned all season as we examine the top quarterbacks of the 2013 college football season to find out if they are “system QBs” or special talents. Other articles in the series include:
Comparing AJ McCarron to Alabama QBs of the Nick Saban era
Johnny Manziel, System QBs, and the ghost of Case Keenum
Once upon a time, a young man named Johnny Manziel (what ever happened to him?) committed to playing football at the University of Oregon. At the time, both he and Hawaiian sensation Marcus Mariota were set to compete for the starting QB role in Chip Kelly’s offense. Manziel ended up switching his commitment, leaving Mariota to assume the starting QB job in 2012. Ultimately, the Flyin’ Hawaiian posted one of the top seasons in America. The question, however, is whether or not Mariota is just another Chip Kelly system QB, or if he is a special talent.
For the sake of this exercise, we’ll compare Marcus Mariota’s first year as a starter in Chip Kelly’s offense to the debut seasons of other Oregon QBs. Meet the contestants:
2009 Jeremiah Masoli, Age 21, First team All Conference, Zero Heisman votes, NFL undrafted
2010 Darron Thomas, Age 20, Second team All Conference, Zero Heisman votes, NFL undrafted
2012 Marcus Mariota, Age 19, First team All Conference. Zero Heisman votes, NFL TBD.
It’s interesting to note that all three of these quarterbacks led their teams to BCS bowls, yet received no national acclaim in the form of Heisman votes. Specifically, Mariota and Thomas both ranked in the top 17 in passing efficiency, so there was plenty of reason to believe their throwing ability was/is legit. Nonetheless, no respect and, for Masoli and Thomas, no NFL future.
Let’s compare the performances of these quarterbacks in games in which they faced bowl eligible competition to see what trends we can find. While all three players threw the ball 26-31 times per game, Mariota was clearly the most effective passer in terms of completion percentage. As I believe that quarterback age matters for NFL prospects, it’s fascinating that Mariota played 2012 at just 19 years old.
With Mariota being the young QB with the high completion percentage, you might assume that they played it safe with him. What you’ll see below is a chart that shows Mariota throwing the highest percentage of TD passes, indicating that they did trust him to finish drives in the red zone. Impressively, he was the least turnover prone of the group. “Managing the game” is a phrase usually associated with veteran QBs, but here Mariota proves to be a decision maker who is wise beyond his years.
Unsurprisingly, the sum of these parts–high completion percentage, strong TD:INT rations–leads Mariota to achieve the highest adjusted yards per attempt of any of Chip Kelly’s quarterbacks. Regarding the explosive dual-threat tendencies that Mariota has displayed, he posted the highest yards per touch (rush yards + pass yards /touches) of any of these quarterbacks. In fact, Mariota 7.8 yards per touch ranked just a fraction behind Manziel’s 8.1 yards per touch, which resulted in a Heisman trophy for Johnny Football.
It’s easy to tell that Marcus Mariota is the most special talent of these Chip Kelly/Oregon quarterbacks. Moreover, he is the most accomplished passer, the youngest, and the most physically/athletically gifted. In fact, I have him ranked as the #6 quarterback prospect for the 2014 NFL draft.
Think about it like this…he’s a year younger, four inches taller, and nearly as explosive of a dual-threat quarterback as Johnny Manziel. Oh, and Mariota appears to be much less of a headache. Maybe I’m getting ahead of myself here, but I think his upside is greater than Colin Kaepernick’s as a game changing NFL prospect. It will be fascinating to watch Mariota in 2013 as he leads the Ducks in their National Championship campaign without Chip Kelly as the head coach.
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