Redzone Reliance Percentage: Pass Catchers

Last week, I introduced the framework of a large part of what my offseason work is going to consist of. Red Zone Reliance percentage, the amount of a players fantasy points that he scores in the red zone, is a new advanced fantasy football metric that I have invented. It’s predictive properties are not yet entirely quantified, but will be something that I continue to work and theorize on throughout the next several months. It’s immediate use, in relation to the running backs that were examined in the last article, where to show which players where heavily reliant on redzone carries and touchdowns for their fantasy value. Running Back is a position that is heavily dictated on usage; wide receivers and tight ends do not get the same volume of work, making red zone looks that much more important.

Rather than creating separate tables for wide receivers and tight ends, I chose to include them both in this set of data. That way, comparisons in usage can be highlighted between all pass catchers. As previously noted, pass catchers who find the end zone or get a lot of red zone work are very valuable. Where as a running back is going get 15 touches a game, plus several possible catches, wide receivers have a much smaller impact on the game as a whole. Even the best pass catching players rarely get to touch the ball 10 times a game, making their touchdowns even more important. Due to the nature of the position, I decided to include Point Per Reception data and create a Point Point Per Reception Redzone Reliance Percentage. Players who get a high percentage of their PPR points in the Redzone but don’t score many touchdowns could be in for a huge uptick in value. PPR RZR% could end up being a predictive set of data, which I will know after more conclusive study. Initally, however, we need to view some players through the lens of this set of Redzone Reliance Percentage data.

The most reliant players on Redzone points are not all that surprising. James Jones comes in as the player with the highest percentage, just barely beating out Eric Decker. Both players required touchdowns to buoy their fantasy value, with Decker needing 17 receptions in the Redzone to help uphold his PPR value. For a player who is normally perceived as a deep threat, Torrey Smith accrued 29% of his PPR points in the redzone, hinting towards a possible upside next year. If he and Joe Flacco are able to combine on a higher percentage of deep throws and his redzone usage maintains, Smith could finally give us that WR1 season we’ve been waiting for. Antonio Brown is another player whose redzone scoring percentages where surprising. While he did miss a significant portion of the season due to injury, the redzone points he did score wound up being 26% of his total, compared to Mike Wallace’s 18%. Players who were surprisingly reliant on redzone catches were not as eye opening as the players who produced without them, however.

Dez Bryant scored a measly 13% of his fantasy points in standard leagues in the redzone and 12% in PPR formats. Dez is a player that is basically built for the redzone with immense strength and outrageous ball skills. If the Cowboys offense takes on a new look in 2013, that is built on giving Dez the ball in the redzone, a finish above A.J Green, Julio Jones and other top 5 options is not at all ludicrous. Dez has absolutely nothing on Calvin Johnson, whose 2012 production would make any player blush, scored only SEVEN PERCENT of his fantasy points in the red zone. My good friend Denny Carter, @cdcarter13, has already related Megatron’s touchdown woes, and this statistic does more to outline  Johnson’s 2013 potential. Not that you need any more reason to draft Calvin Johnson onto your team, but his production truly boggles the mind. Other players that scored a surprisingly low percentage of their total points in the redzone include T.Y Hilton with 12% in both standard and PPR, Owen Daniels with only 13% in PPR formats, Andre Johnson totalling a Megatron-esque 8% RZR (potentially related to Arian Fosters ridiculous RZR%) and Josh Gordon’s 12%. In the case of Gordon, who is already a hot 2013 commodity, RZR% points towards an upward trend in 2013.
Without further ado, however, I present the 2012 data.

2012 Passcatchers Redzone Reliance Percentage (Standard and PPR)