Image credit to CollegeSportsBlog.DallasNews.com
Stay tuned all season as we examine the top quarterbacks of the 2013 college football season to find out if they are “system QBs” or special talents. Other articles in the series include:
Is Oregon’s Marcus Mariota just another Chip Kelly System QB?
Comparing AJ McCarron to Alabama QBs of the Nick Saban era
Johnny Manziel, System QBs, and the ghost of Case Keenum
What Kind of NFL Draft Prospect is Clemson QB Tajh Boyd?
Football fans have an odd way of remembering things; they remember the destination, but not the journey. This is especially true when it comes to Texas QBs who have played under Mack Brown.
Look at Vince Young and Colt McCoy. Longhorn fans undoubtedly remember these two as legendary quarterbacks who finished 2nd in the Heisman voting and led their teams to National Championship games. For Vince Young, his superhuman performances in Pasedena against both Michigan and USC will live on forever. For Colt McCoy, at the time of his graduation, he was the winning-est QB in college football history. What you probably don’t remember about Young or McCoy is how they got to their legendary perches.
For Texas QB David Ash, people seem unsure of which way the arrow is pointing. Can he become the next great Texas QB? Or is he a seat warmer until Tyrone Swoopes is ready? When considering Ash’s future, it’s important to remember that he is still a young quarterback, having played his 2012 season at age 20. What if we compared Ash’s passing performance to how Colt McCoy and Vince Young looked at age 20? The thought here is that quarterbacks of the same age, in relatively similar systems, should post similar numbers. If a quarterback “outplays” his age/system cohort, then he might be a unique talent. Note that the following stats are based on performance in key games against bowl-eligible opponents.
| QB | Season | Age | College | % games w/ 2+ TD pass | pass att/gm | Comp Pct | TD vs INT | Adjusted Y/A |
| Ash, David | 2012 | 20 | Texas | 56% | 28.1 | 67.2% | 2.7 | 9.1 |
| McCoy, Colt | 2006 | 20 | Texas | 75% | 28.1 | 66.2% | 3.2 | 7.9 |
| Young, Vince | 2003 | 20 | Texas | 17% | 15.7 | 56.4% | 0.5 | 5.2 |
You might be surprised to see that Ash had the best passing stats, but would you believe me if I said he was similarly efficient as a dual threat QB? Take a look at his season yards/touch performance, which is defined as (rush attempts + pass attempts)/total yards. While Ash isn’t the same caliber runner as VY, it’s interesting to see him produce the same results on a per-touch basis.
| QB | Season | Age | College | YPT |
| Ash, David | 2012 | 20 | Texas | 7.7 |
| McCoy, Colt | 2006 | 20 | Texas | 7.1 |
| Young, Vince | 2003 | 20 | Texas | 7.7 |
So if Ash is indeed a precocious talent, what might his career trajectory look like? Let’s take a look at Ash’s 2012 against the best performances of Vince Young and Colt McCoy, both of which occurred in their age 22 seasons. For their efforts VY and Colt MyBoy finished 2nd in their respective Heisman races.
| QB | Season | Age | College | % games w/ 2+ TD pass | pass att/gm | Comp Pct | TD vs INT | Adjusted Y/A |
| Young, Vince | 2005 | 22 | Texas | 88% | 26.6 | 69.0% | 3.0 | 10.1 |
| McCoy, Colt | 2008 | 22 | Texas | 88% | 36.3 | 76.9% | 6.0 | 9.5 |
| Ash, David | 2012 | 20 | Texas | 56% | 28.1 | 67.2% | 2.7 | 9.1 |
Okay, you got me, Ash wasn’t on par with those seasons…but was he that far off? His outstanding 9.1 AYA is the sixth best of any 20 year old in my database and just a shade behind McCoy.
Proving his dual-threat merit, Ash performed nearly as well as Colt McCoy did in his Heisman runner-up campaign, which, again, he played at two years older than Ash.
| QB | Season | Age | College | YPT |
| Young, Vince | 2005 | 22 | Texas | 8.5 |
| McCoy, Colt | 2008 | 22 | Texas | 7.8 |
| Ash, David | 2012 | 20 | Texas | 7.7 |
What will become of David Ash in this turbulent season for the Longhorns? Can he lead them to a Big 12 championship? Can he stay healthy enough to make a difference? Who knows. What I can say is that he quietly had an outstanding 2012 season, which lead me to rank him my #5 Quarterback Prospect For the 2014 NFL Draft. He’s numbers have been solid, if not spectacular, so far and it will be interesting to watch him play in spotlight games the next few weeks. While it may sound crazy to put him in the same class as McCoy and Young, I think the numbers tell a story worth following.
If you thought this article was stupid, awesome, or somewhere in between, continue this conversation with me on Google+ or Twitter.
About Jon Moore
Aspiring NFL Front Office VP. I dream of spending an entire college football season going to a different stadium every week. Until then, I'll be here writing about the magic of Saturdays.
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