Why I Have A Crush On Nerlens Noel: A 2013 NBA Draft Scout Report

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I like Nerlens Noel. A lot. I like like him. So when reports began coming out that Cleveland is considering “all” options at the first overall pick (all is in quotation marks because there’s only one option), I began to get worried. Don’t get me wrong, I like Alex Len, Ben McLemore, Anthony Bennett and Victor Oladipo. But I don’t like like them. So I thought I’d do a quick scouting report on the top prospect of the upcoming (TEN DAYS!!!) NBA Draft.

Nerlens Noel has constantly been getting compared to Anthony Davis ever since he committed to Kentucky, but always with a mention that he is a lesser version. I’m here to argue against this notion. Not to say that he’s better than Davis, or that the ‘Brow wasn’t as elite as a prospect as some thought him to be, just that Noel, despite being the projected number one overall pick in the draft to Cleveland (woooohoooo!!!!), is still underrated. If Nerlens and Anthony had swapped teams (Nerlens playing on the ‘11-12 National Champion Wildcats and Davis on this past year’s clusterf*** of a team) that there would have been very little, if any difference between these two players.

In the first 24 games of their college careers (the 24th was Noel’s last after he tore his ACL)

Anthony Davis
31 minutes, 13.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.8 blocks, 1.5 steals

Nerlens Noel
31 minutes, 10.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.4 blocks, 2.1 steals

Very little difference here. Anthony looks slightly better at blocking shots, but Nerlens might be more adept at disrupting lanes. Rebounding is essentially the same, as reflected by their rebounding percentages (18.2% and 16.8%). The biggest thing separating them would be the offensive side of the ball, as Davis posted 62% from the field while Noel managed 59%. Keep in mind, Noel played on a vastly inferior team. Davis’s Wildcats had 4 first rounders drafted in 2012 while Nerlens is the only player likely to go in the first, with Archie Goodwin the only other play on NBA team’s radars. Let’s look at some more statistics…

Davis/ Noel
Block%: 13.8 / 13.2
FG%: 62 / 59
Usage %: 18.8 / 17.4
Defensive Rating: 80.3 / 81.8
Team Assists: 481 / 403
FT%: 71 / 53
FTApG: 5.1 / 4.3

As you can see, when it comes to their offensive production, (the perceived biggest difference) Davis averaging roughly 3 more a night can be argued to be essentially irrelevant, as Davis had far superior guards getting him the ball and was also nearly 20% better from the charity stripe than Nerlens. Anthony was also used more often, and more efficiently, due to the better supporting cast. That, on top of the free throw shooting, easily makes up for that 3 point disparity.

Another thing to remember is that Nerlens wasn’t as good as Davis right away- he walked into Kentucky a much rawer player. If it weren’t for Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker, it probably wouldn’t have been a horrible decision for him to stay at Kentucky, rehab, and dominate college basketball when he comes back. But he isn’t. Instead of silencing any doubt of his status as an elite prospect, he’s chosen the riskier route, although it has a much higher reward (first overall pick) than sticking around for the ‘14 Draft.

To sum it up, Nerlens deserves a lot more respect than he’s been getting, and should be the number one pick to Cleveland without a doubt. Out of all the questions and concerns posed towards him, the only with any traction is the ACL tear. But he’s supposedly weeks ahead of his schedule, and doesn’t have any other history of injuries. So despite the fact that Noel’s career started off on some struggles, he still replicated similar numbers to Davis. And if it weren’t for his knee injury, who knows what the second half of the season would have brought for him. For one, Kentucky probably would have made the NCAA tournament. It’s not outlandish to think that he would have even surpassed some of Anthony’s statistics.

Next Thursday, one player is going to be the last first overall pick to shake David Stern’s hand. Might be Alex Len, or Otto Porter, or a darkhorse like McLemore and Bennett. But if the commish hugs anyone other than the high-top faded 7-footer from Everett, Massachusetts, this Cleveland fan will be very upset.

About Dan Cutter

Full-time University of Nebraska-Omaha student, hotel front desk worker, speech and music nerd, overall swell guy. Add me on facebook or follow me on twitter @KidCutskey

Mocking the Lottery: 2013 NBA Draft

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After seeing my beloved Cavs win the draft lottery, I just had to write up a lottery mock draft! This is the first of likely many. We’ll see a full, 30 pick mock in the next week or so.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers- Nerlens Noel, C/PF, Kentucky

Anderson Varejao is getting up there in age and is injury-prone anyway, and Tyler Zeller looks like a rotational big guy at best. Tristan Thompson has shown good development, but the Cavs need to pair him with a guy who can protect the rim, and Noel does that extremely well. He’s had lots of time to rehab his torn ACL, and likely won’t miss too much of the start of the season. With Noel and TT, the Cavs now have built a strong frontcourt to match their backcourt. Having a great inside defender makes bad perimeter defenders (Dion Waiters and Kyrie Irving) look alot better. All they need now is a real starting small forward (sorry Alonzo Gee) and bench depth before a playoff run becomes a possibility.

2. Orlando Magic- Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

The Magic already have Nikola Vucevic, rebounding machine, so not getting Noel isn’t a huge blow for them. But what they could really use is a replacement for Jameer Nelson, who has not aged gracefully. Pairing the dynamic Burke with Arron Afflalo, Tobias Harris, Andrew Nicholson, and Vucevic makes for a very interesting, very young, and very potential laden crop of players. The Magic could be the next Houston Rockets.

3. Washington Wizards- Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Trevor Ariza has just one year left on his deal, and he hasn’t exactly lived up to his $7 million a year price tag. With the pairing of John Wall and Brad Beal, the Wizards have the luxury of not needing a scorer with this pick. So they get a guy who can do it all. Porter rebounds, plays great defense, is a good passer and better teammate, and will make a great 3rd option for Washington.

4. Charlotte Bobnets- Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

This is a definite MJ pick, as McLemore has boat loads of potential as a star in this league. Gerald Henderson is likely gone, and Ben Gordon and Ramon Sessions will be on the final year of their deals in 2013-14, so a once crowded backcourt will be very thin very soon. Ben is the best player on the board and fills a need, as the only person currently capable of scoring on the Bobnets is Kemba Walker, so he’s an easy selection here. Also, I chose Bobnets instead of Horncats because Bobnets sounds dumber and Charlotte is pretty dumb sooo yeahhh.

5. Phoenix Suns- Alex Len, C, Maryland

Marcin Gortat is entering the final year of his contract and his little incentive to resign with the awful Suns and Luis Scola is really old, so look for the Suns to grab some size early on. Len certainly has that! The 7’1”, 255 pound Ukranian left Maryland after his freshman year. He is physically imposing in the post and has an impressive faceup game, but he needs to develop actual post moves and learn how to play some defense.

6. New Orleans Pelicans- Anthony Bennett, F, UNLV

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pelicans (it feels weird typing that out still) try and trade Eric Gordon and snatch Victor Oladipo with this pick, but for now, we’re going to pair up Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson with the versatile freshman from UNLV. Bennett is a good athlete and can stretch the floor, and because of this, scouts are hoping he can play the 3 and the 4. His size is very similar to that of Paul Millsap (6’7”, 240 pounds, just one inch and ten pounds ligher), and his wingspan of 7’1” and college numbers (11 boards per 36 minutes, 38% from 3, 70% FT) provide promise that he can do so.

7. Sacramento Kings- Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana

The Kings are in the unique situation of having a depth of talented players at nearly every position, but they still need help at every position. So, they take the top player on the board, the tenacious Oladipo, who, contrary to every other player on the Kings, actually plays defense. And with Tyreke Evans likely out the door, someone is going to have to step up and be the face of the franchise to go along with big Boogie Cousins. Victor could be that player. He’d instantly be the new fan favorite because of his relentless style of player and outstanding athleticism.

8. Detroit Pistons- Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

Brandon Knight’s production slipped in his second year, and he’s more of a combo guard anyway, and since Detroit is losing Jose Calderon and possibly Will Bynum, they really need a point guard. Carter-Williams won’t take shots away from Knight, Stuckey, and Monroe, as he’s a distributor- and a very good one at that. He had an exceptionally high assist percentage of 40% his sophomore year, double that of Knight’s this year, and it would have put him in the top 5 in the NBA this year, just ahead of Calderon. C-W is also a very good athlete, and his size (6’6”!!) makes him a potential matchup nightmare for other point guards.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves- C.J. McCollum, SG, Lehigh

Minnesota has a lot of nice pieces, but lacks an absolute pure scorer. McCollum has been one of the best in the NCAA all 4 years of his career at the Patriot league school Lehigh. He led the Mountain Hawks with 30 points over Duke in the first round of the 2012 Tournament as just a 15-seed before an injury cut his senior season short after just 12 games. Two concerns with him are his height (6’3.25”), as he isn’t a point guard at the next level, and whether or not the scoring will translate, like it did for Damian Lillard. Also look for Shabazz Muhammad or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope here.

10. Portland Trailblazers- Rudy Gobert, C, France

Portland needs depth and they need it badly. J.J. Hickson is a free agent this summer, so unless if they plan on playing Meyers Leonard and Joel Freeland 30+ minutes a night, they need to draft a big man here. The Frenchman Gobert is freakishly big, sporting a 7’9” wingspan to go along with his already big 7’2” frame. He needs to get stronger, but he has the potential to be an elite interior defender, which is something Portland desperately needs.

11. Philadelphia 76ers- Cody Zeller, C/PF, Indiana

Any chance that Philly resigns Andrew Bynum? Probably not. Replacing a guy who never played makes for an easy situation for the middle Zeller, as any production he gives the Sixers is an improvement. Cody’s stock is back up on the rise after a somewhat disappointing sophomore season, due to his excellent combine numbers. He proved he was a legit 7 footer and wowed the scouts athletically with his vert, agility times, and body fat. I just hope for Cody’s sake that he isn’t a bowler.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Toronto)- Steven Adams, C, Pitt

Adams was likely the winner of the combine, after showing off tremendous size, agility, and athleticism, while also shooting the ball better than previously expected. He has the ability to be a great interior defender in the league. OKC should amnesty Kendrick Perkins this offseason, although I’ve heard from Royce Young of the Daily Thunder that that isn’t going to happen. I’m still slotting Adams to OKC anyway, maybe just to make Davis happy, but also because I think he fills an important need for the Thunder.

13. Dallas Mavericks- Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Louisville

I’m completely convinced that Dieng is going to be a great NBA big man. He’s 6’11” in shoes, has a wingspan of nearly 7’4” (so he’s a legit center) and was the defensive anchor for the best defensive team in college basketball the last two years. Even if Dallas resigns Chris Kaman and Elton Brand, their frontcourt is ancient, and could really use a young, dynamic big guy. Dieng makes life a lot easier for Dirk, too.

14. Utah Jazz- Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany

Schroder is shooting up draft boards as a lightning bolt point guard from Germany. He has an impressive wingspan (6’7” for a 6’2” point guard), his hands are comparable to Rajon Rondo’s freaky, alien hands (Rondo- 9.5” long, 10 wide, Schroeder 8.75” long, 10.5” wide), and he has also apparently received a first round promise from a team. I think it very well could be the Jazz. Mo Williams and Earl Watson are the only point guards the Jazz have, and both are free agents. Schroeder would potentially have a few toys to play with in Utah with the bevy of big men.

About Dan Cutter

Full-time University of Nebraska-Omaha student, hotel front desk worker, speech and music nerd, overall swell guy. Add me on facebook or follow me on twitter @KidCutskey