Chad Scott of Dynasty League Football sat down with Coleman and Davis to talk about Vincent Brown, Jon Baldwin and the rest of week nine fantasy football.

Chad Bumphis led the SEC in touchdowns last season, with 12. Given that Bumphis doesn’t have an ADP, it seems useful to point that out the list of players that have led the SEC in touchdowns over the last decade: Jarius Wright, A.J Green (Tied with Alshon Jeffrey, Denarious Moore and Chad Mathews after only playing 9 games due to a suspension), Brand Lafell, A.J Green (again tied with Lafell, Shay Hodge and Mohammed Massaqoui), Stevie Johnson, Dwayne Bowe (tied with Keenan Burton), Sidney Rice, Troy Williamson (tied with Ben Obomanu and Fred Gibson, and Devrey Henderson.

Pretty impressive list. Green and Bowe have both finished in the top 5 of WR fantasy scoring, Rice and Stevie Johnson inside the top 10. While I wouldn’t call it a strict correlation, I would say that leading the SEC in touchdowns is probably an indicator of potential NFL ability. The brilliant Jon Moore rang the cowbell on Bumphis as a sleeper and all of the pertinent metric discussion is available in this article. Jon also conducted an analysis of Deandre Hopkins’ SEC production and came to the conclusion that SEC production matters to eventual NFL production.

We know Bumphis is a sleeper and we know that he is in some potentially elite company, so the purpose of this piece isn’t to analyze the Dolphin’s offense or why Bumphis was off the radar. Rather, it’s a simple thought experiment. Here are scouting videos (and highlight films, where that’s all that was available) of 4 SEC wide receivers held in high regard plus Hopkins…and Champ Bumphis. I certainly don’t believe in the ‘Eye Test’ as the end all, be all of talent evaluation but there are those who need to see something on the field before they believe. So, does Bumphis pass the eye test?

Julio Jones

AJ Green

Alshon Jeffery

Cordarrelle Patterson

Deandre Hopkins

Chad Bumphis

Danny Amendola, New England. WR14, +14 vs ECR.

Dynasty GMs are (or were) drafting Percy Harvin in the 2^nd round of dynasty startups, hoping he’ll maintain his volume of targets of 2012, despite how unlikely that is. What if I told you there’s a player who will almost certainly be force fed that number of targets and is available 45 picks later? Meet Danny Amendola. Last year, Welker received an astronomical 9.7 targets per game, and finished with the 4^th most targets of any wide receiver. Amendola is going to step right into the role Welker vacated. If you’re going to take small, low-touchdown scoring wide receivers, take them in the 5^th round, not the 2^nd. The injuries are a slight concern, but I’m not as worried about fluky things like a dislocated collarbone.

Marques Colston, New Orleans. WR11, +13 vs ECR.

In each of the last 3 seasons, Colston has at least 80 catches, 1,000 yards, and 7 touchdowns. In 2009, he had only 70 catches, but still went over 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns. Since 2006, he only has 1 season under 1,000 yards, and he missed 6 games that year. According to this numberFire piece, Colston has ranked in the top 20 receivers efficiency-wise for his entire career, with the exception of 2007. Dynasty owners haven’t learned, either. In 2012, Colston was drafted as the WR22. This year, he’s being taken as the WR29. Colston isan obvious buy low.

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago. WR32, +10 vs ECR.

Jeffery’s rookie season is similar to the freshman campaigns put forth by NFL stars Vincent Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, and Jordy Nelson. Jeffery doesn’t have an elite physical profile, but it’s more than good enough to succeed at the NFL level. Who doesn’t want a piece of that Marc Trestman offense in round 9?

Stevie Johnson, Buffalo. WR20, +9 vs ECR.

Each year, Johnson is underrated and forgotten. All he’s done is finish as a WR2 for the last 3 years. The experts have Cordarrelle Patterson (WR30, who is still learning to play wide receiver) and rookie DeAndre Hopkins (WR26, who is playing 2^nd fiddle to Andre Johnson on a run first team) ranked higher than Steady Stevie (WR33). Marrone is likely going to install a similar system to the one he ran in Syracuse: simple play calls and one-read throws. The “see it and throw it” scheme used by the 49ers allowed Colin Kaepernick – a 5.87 AY/A passer against teams .500+ his senior season – to become a fantasy force over the last 7 games of the season. Manuel – a 7.23 AY/A passer – could benefit from a simple beginning. Simplicity can go a long way helping Johnson’s value maintain its level-handedness.

Rueben Randle, New York. WR41, +8 vs ECR.

Jon Moore wrote the definitive Randle sleeper article this past June, and his ADP is rising as Nicks continues to battle injury woes. In 2014, we could be talking about Randle as a 3^rd round pick after Nicks moves on in free agency. There aren’t many young wide receivers who have a chance to step into a starting role in a pass first offense with an above average quarterback. Those who are, like Randle, are treasured commodities.

Percy Harvin, Seattle. WR14, -7 vs ECR.

It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Harvin is getting 9+ targets a game like he was in Minnesota last year. Seattle is a run first team, and until that changes, you’re buying a WR2 at WR1 prices. The hip issues only make this ranking easier.

Roddy White, Atlanta, WR21, -9 vs ECR.

Shawn Siegele highlighted Roddy White as part of his All-Trap team in 2013. The experts are wildly overrating Roddy White (WR12) and Andre Johnson (WR14), while simultaneously underrating Marques Colston (WR24). I see no difference in White and Colston, except that White is likely headed down, and Colston is likely to keep steady. Take advantage of this value discrepancy in your startup drafts.

Mike Wallace, Miami. WR26, -11 vs ECR.

I’m terrified of Mike Wallace in Miami. I’m not a Ryan Tannehill fan, and Wallace is already dependent on his quarterback performance and scheme. Wallace bombed in Todd Haley’s scheme once he was asked to be more than just a vertical threat, and reportedly lost focus last year. There’s also been whispers of laziness during Dolphins training camp. If Tannehill busts and Wallace half-asses it, a ton of fantasy owners will be left holding the bag. Last year I avoided Mike Wallace at his current ADP for Percy Harvin, and was rewarded handsomely. This year I’ll do the same for Wallace, taking Jordy Nelson or Josh Gordon instead.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota. WR52, -19 vs ECR.

Patterson is a player I just cannot get behind. His comparables include players like David Gettis and Legedu Naanee, and his Dominator Rating is terrible. Despite the skills he showed on film, Patterson chose not to perform the agility drills at the combine, then posted an abysmal 11.68 Agility Score. Patterson’s logic-defying Agility Score came on his home turf at the University of Tennessee, where the tracks are faster and athletes notoriously perform better. For reference, Julio Jones posted a 10.91 Agility Score (anything higher than 11.1 is considered a poor score). There are too many red flags here for me to justify drafting Patterson. Those expecting the next Julio Jones will be sorely disappointed. (Just in case you’re wondering, the Dominator Rating concept does work, and it crushes traditional scouting methods.)

Vincent Brown, San Diego. WR73, -27 vs ECR.

We all know the story about Vincent Brown. His god-like route running brings cornerbacks to their knees, begging for mercy. Darrelle Revis tosses and turns against the prospect of Brown running a crisp out route against him. There are whispers that some AFC West teams are considering giving Brown the Calvin Johnson punt coverage treatment. Here’s the reality: Brown is a slow, possession wide receiver who’s college profile doesn’t make up for his dearth of athleticism. History has shown us that slow, short wide receivers don’t post top 30 seasons. Brown’s 0.36 Dominator Rating can’t make up for his 75 Height-adjusted Speed Score. In same the area Vincent Brown is going, you can get Alshon Jeffery, Mike Williams, and Rueben Randle – all bigger receivers with positive college profiles and plus athleticism.

You probably spent a couple FAAB dollars on Stephen Hill after his 5 reception, 89 yard, 2 touchdown performance in Week One against the Buffalo Bills. You also probably dropped him after his 2 consecutive zeros. However, relying on rookies in redraft leagues is very rarely going to pay off for you. In Jon Bales’ book “Fantasy Football For Smart People: What The Experts Don’t Want You To Know” he notes that since 2000, only Eddie Royal, Mike Williams, Torrey Smith, Julio Jones and A.J Green finished as fantasy starters in 12 team leagues.

Second-year wide receivers are an entirely different story. Unlike the thoroughly disproven “third year wide receiver breakout” theory, there is a little meat to the second year wide receiver breakout.  From JJ Zachariason’s book “The Late Round Quarterback: 2013 Edition”: ‘If anything this data shows us that second-year wide receivers may be more valuable than third-year guys. Receivers like Torrey Smith, Cecil Shorts, Randall Cobb all finished in the top 24 at wide receiver for the first time…In 2011, Antonio Brown and Dez Bryant both showed they were relevant in their second year.’ Zachariason also notes that Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Desean Jackson, Mike Sims-Walker and Calvin Johnson all made their leap into the top 24 in their second season. A possible name for that list in 2013: Stephen Hill.

Reasonable Upside

If Mark Sanchez maintains the Jets starting job for 16 games, it’s pretty unlikely that Hill winds up being a ‘breakout’ fantasy wide receiver. Braylon Edwards 2010 season is probably Hill’s extreme upside in that scenario (904 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns, WR21). On the other hand, if Geno Smith becomes the starter early on, or is just given the job week 1, Hill instantly becomes an incredible sleeper. I created a custom Sim Score for Hill, using only games where he received 5 or more targets.

Obviously, that table is a little cherry picked, but I think it accurately represents Hill’s reasonable upside. The floor is going to be very low in that offense, regardless, but ceiling is just prodigious. The following is from Shawn Siegele before the 2012 draft: “Hill’s Height-adjusted Speed Score of 125 is the 6^th best on record. His .46 Dominator Rating was second best among 2011 WRs, although it’s worth questioning whether the formula accurately applies to such an extreme ball control squad. Hill wasn’t nearly as dominant as Demaryius Thomas – whose .55 DR was among the best ever – but scouting downgrades due to his lack of raw numbers are probably overblown. Scouts question his polish and suddenness off the line, but those same concerns were voiced for Calvin Johnson and seem pretty silly now.” Johnson only ran a 40 at this pro day, and due to injury, Demaryius Thomas didn’t participate and finding an accurate 40 time for him is quite a hassle. Regardless, Hill is built in the same general physical mold of the other 2 Georgia Tech deep threat. They all stand higher than 6’3 and they played the same role and had some of the same concerns coming into the league (inability to run routes, lack of burst off the line)

The statistical community realizes what a rare prospect Hill is. His physical measurables are absolutely outstanding and despite playing in a ball-control offense, he was beyond impressive when he got the ball. In Hill’s senior season, he averaged 29.3 yards per reception which lead the country by a full 8 yards. He is a deep threat of the rarest degree, which we got to see a flash of last year, even with Sanchez. 26.1% of Hill’s targets were 20 yards or further down the field and on 3 catchable balls, he caught 2, for 1 touchdown and 60 yards (per PFF). However, Hill was playing with one of the worst quarterbacks in the entire league at throwing the deep ball. Not only does Sanchez have poor arm strength and accuracy (35.7% deep accuracy percentage per PFF) but the Jets coaching staff have done him absolutely no favors in terms of development.

Football Outsiders has developed a metric entitled ‘Playmaker Score‘ that shines rather favorably on Hill as well. Essentially, the metric is FO’s signature way of evaluating WR’s based only on recorded data with no scouting input. Vince Verhei wrote after Hill exploded in week one last year that ‘Between his stellar production at Georgia Tech and his dazzling performance at the Combine, Hill wound up with a higher Playmaker Score than any other prospect we’ve found. Initially we guessed that Hill’s statistics might have been skewed by Georgia Tech’s triple-option offense, a run-dependent scheme in which most passing plays were deep lobs to Hill in single coverage. However, based on his performance against Buffalo, it seems that Playmaker Score has found a winner in Hill.’ Given that Hill scored so highly and has at least flashed at the NFL level (unlike other superstars the metric predicted, such as Jon Baldwin).

For those who need some context for the data, the famed Matt Waldman broke down Hill’s ability as a deep-threat receiver completely here and concluded that “Hill catches the ball with his hands extended from his body at a full sprint, controls his body effectively to stay in bounds, and he’s not distracted by the prospect of physical play. Speed, hands, ball tracking, body adjustment, boundary awareness, and height are all skill that coaches covet from wide receivers – especially X receivers who are asked to stretch the field and dissuade opponents from blitzing them.” Despite being a raw prospect, Waldman seems to believe that Hill possesses the baseline needed qualities for an NFL wide receiver who specializes in the deep ball. Perhaps most encouraging is that Hill is physical down the field, something that many college receivers struggle with when trying to translate to the next level.

Hill’s slow development wouldn’t be particularly shocking, given the limited route tree he ran in college and others with his physical profile. In email correspondence, Siegele noted that Hill compares to Vincent Jackson, who has the 3rd best HaSS on record. This is Vincent Jackson’s performance his first 3 seasons:

In Jackson’s 2nd and 3rd seasons, he finished WR53 twice before leaping up to WR12 in his 4th year. While the yards weren’t there for Jackson, the touchdowns were. Ironically enough, Jackson played with a rookie and 2nd year quarterback going through his growing pains. If Hill is lucky, he will be in the same situation. While these numbers paint the picture of a dynasty buy, there is still a good chance that Hill provides redraft value.

Elephant In The Room

Mark Sanchez is not a good NFL quarterback. He doesn’t make his receivers better (in fact, he probably makes them worst) and many in the both the analytics and scouting community believe he would struggle as a professional. The back-to-back AFC championship games led Rex Ryan and the Jets to halt Sanchez’s development as a passer and made the team reliant on the running game and defense, which is okay for winning games, but not good for the fantasy prospects of wide receivers on the team.

On the other hand, Geno Smith profiles as a good-to-above average NFL quarterback. Again, Shawn Siegele did the heavy lifting and found what the average stat line for an NFL quarterback looks like their final season as an NFL starter. Geno was not only above the line, but the best of the 2013 QB class.

(Stats courtesy of Shawn Siegele)

For what it’s worth, Geno’s A/YA was better than Sanchez’s and his INT/TD ratio was 2 times better than Sanchez’s. This is relevant to Hill in that the better his quarterback is, the more opportunities the offense will get and the better the balls he sees will be. Particularly, Geno seems to be at least adequate at throwing the deep ball, which is where a majority of Hill’s fantasy value would theoretically come from. At this stage in his career, Hill is a pretty rudimentary route runner and probably won’t excel with precise routes or running through the middle of the field.

The following table was provided by John Pollard from Stats, INC.

When throwing the ball more than 16 yards down the field, Geno was 33 for 81, completing 40% of his passes for 15 touchdowns. Perhaps most impressive is that out of 1,157 possible yards down the field, 77% of those were Air yards (897 yards). That speaks pretty well for Geno being exactly what Hill would need to succeed at the pro level. Given that Hill isn’t a very precise runner, but a big, fast bad ball-type player, a quarterback willing to give him a chance to make the play, it would seem intuitive that more Air Yards=better. Waldman wrote in the 2013 RSP that “Smith has enough arm strength to make every throw from the traditional route tree and there’s opportunity to tighten his stance and develop better arm strength, which gives him some upside.” While obviously Geno’s game is far from perfect, from a physical attributes level, the film community seems to agree with my sentiment that Smith is able to get the ball down the field, at least semi-effectively.

If you still aren’t convinced in Geno’s ability to be an above average quarterback, check out “Cracking The Geno Code” over at The Banana Stand. Given that ‘highlight tapes’ are about as imperfect of a way to evaluate talent as their is, in this game against Baylor, Geno flashes the sort of arm talent that is needed to make a deep threat receiver a viable fantasy player.

Despite being basically only a deep threat, Hill gained 15.2 yards per target in his senior season and caught 51.6% of his targets. Football Study Hall has a metric titled ‘Real Yards Per Target‘ (per FSH: what your per-target average would have been had your %Standard-Down correlated to the national average) and Hill’s 15.7 Real Yards per Target is in the top 1 percentile since 2005. He is at his most effective when he is getting the ball deep down the field, in one on one situations with corners or safeties. As a pro, Hill’s aDOT was 14.6 yards down the field, compared to Sanchez’s overall 9.4 aDOT.

A Simple Hypothesis

Stephen Hill, from the advanced metrics that correlate highly to NFL success, is the best wide receiver on the Jets roster, and it’s not close.  Take a look at him compared to the other options (that aren’t ancient and already injured. Looking at you Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards).

The popular meme amongst the fantasy football community is that the tight end is the rookie quarterbacks best friend. That is among the truisms that the casual football player believes to their very core; just like many other truisms, it simply isn’t based in reality. Jason Lisk found on the Pro Football Reference blog several years ago that there isn’t any truth to that. In fact, the study found that 23.8% of the rookie quarterbacks targets went to the WR1. If Santonio Holmes isn’t healthy and Braylon Edwards is still 30 (sources: still 30), Hill has a clear route to the WR1 in that offense. For what it’s worth, all of the rookie quarterbacks (minus Brandon Weeden and RG3) had higher than league average aDOT’s in 2012.

The idea is pretty simple: while Jeremy Kerley will likely be Smith’s binky if/when he is given the starting job, Hill profiles better as a fantasy player. The only way that Kerley ends up being consistently startable in a 12 team league is if he is literally force fed targets and I don’t see that being likely; he’ll be a low-ceiling, high floor type of guy. Hill, on the other hand, has a ceiling as high as it gets. Smith clearly possesses legitimate arm talent and Hill is the sort of physical specimen that can locate a ball that isn’t necessarily placed perfectly. Whereas the rest of the Jets skill position players aren’t good enough to make Geno look better, but Hill is far enough above replacement level in the physicality department that he has the ability to do so. Just as Vincent Jackson has made a living turning low percentage down the field plays into plays advantageous for the offense, Hill could function in the same role for the Jets.

If it comes out that Geno is starting week 1 for the Jets, I will move Hill up dramatically in my WR’s rank; on the same side of the coin, if Sanchez is benched and Geno becomes the starter, I’ll add him on every roster. Hill is easily in the top 5 of the ‘Waiver Wire Watch List’ players. As a dynasty buy, it doesn’t come more attractive than Hill; freshly paired with a potentially elite young quarterback.

I sat down with Jacob Myers of Rotoviz to discuss the Rotoviz Dynasty League draft, and the current state of our rosters (Hint: I drafted Dennis Pitta and Percy Harvin in the first 3 rounds), the ramifications of the Jeremy Maclin, Dennis Pitta, and Percy Harvin injuries, underrated late round running backs and other fantasy football podcast topics.

Sports Wunderkind Fantasy Football Podcast With Jacob Myers Of Rotoviz

In a recent draft I was in, Danny Amendola was drafted before Hakeem Nicks went off the board. Fantasy Football Calculator ADP has Amendola exactly one spot above Nicks, and while I am certainly a fan of Amendola and have him higher than Expert Consensus Rank on FantasyPros, in no scenario can I imagine valuing Amendola higher than Nicks in a standard format.

The reason for Amendola’s rise is pretty simple. The last time we saw him was in weeks 15-17 of 2012 where he received 12, 7 and 9 targets. The fact that Amendola was likely a waiver wire pickup that produced last year endeared him to fantasy owners, and the inevitable Wes Welker comparisons began when he signed with the Patriots. Obviously, he will fill the heavy-target void left by Wes Welker’s departure to the Bronco’s. Fantasy owners have a downright case of the feel goods for Amendola and that feeling is reflected in his Average Draft Position. However, that Welker role has never produced double digit touchdowns, and Amendola is no touchdown maker. He didn’t fulfill that role at Texas Tech (14% and 27% RZ TD rates while receiving meaningful targets, i.e more than 45 his sophomore season) and as a Ram, Amendola converted 44 redzone targets over 4 seasons into 7 touchdowns (15.7%).

Hakeem Nicks, on the other hand, makes a fantasy living off of touchdowns. Nicks boasted a 43% RZ TD rate his senior year of college, and as a Giant, has converted 52 redzone targets into 14 touchdowns (28%).

It’s clear that the hobbled Nicks of 2012 is stuck in everyone’s mind. Despite 100 targets, he finished as fantasy’s number 54 overall wide receiver. However, Amendola was also injured, also received 100 targets, and finished WR56. The backstories for these players are remarkably similar. Amendola has played 12 games the last 2 seasons; clearly, Amendola’s lighter frame is a little susceptible to injury. Nicks has been hampered by lower body injuries for basically his entire professional career, yet has finishes as WR8 in only 13 games and WR12 in 15. The fact that both players were injured in 2012 is clearly impacting Nicks’ ADP relative to ceiling more than it is Amendola, however.

We are seeing a scenario where fantasy drafters are not evaluating a player correctly. If healthy, Nicks is a true fantasy WR1. The type that has the potential to post a 200 yard, 2 touchdown performance. In fact, he doesn’t even have to be healthy, just playing. Even while banged up, Nicks has performed admirably. Amendola, on the other hand, has a dramatically lower ceiling. Using the Rotoviz WR Similarity Score App, I generated these two tables to demonstrate the potential of the 2 players in 2013.

This is Amendola’s N+1 Comp graph, with all games included.

And this is his projection without the crazy 16 target, 12 catch performance against the Redskins.

Granted, the app doesn’t know that Amendola upgraded from Bradford to Brady, but I’m not sure that makes him a better fantasy option than Nicks. Amendola was the clear top dog in the Rams passing game while healthy. Ideally, Amendola will function behind Rob Gronkowski in a very run heavy offense. His targets per game will remain ideal, and he will probably still have a pretty shallow aDOT (7.9 last year, .3 higher than Welker). WR18 is around Amendola’s upside, because he won’t score a crazy amount of touchdowns.

On the other hand, Nicks, who has more of a perceived injury risk than Amendola, despite missing fewer games, has much better prospects. This is the chart most representative of Nicks’ 2012, and is his N+1 projection.

Nicks’ best case scenario is better than Amendola’s. It’s that simple. In a PPR format, it is possible that Amendola ends up out-earning Nicks through sheer volume, but Nicks easily has a 12 touchdown season in his range (something he almost accomplished in 2012) and in his down fantasy year, scored as many touchdowns as Amendola has in his 4 year career. I get the allure, I do. Nicks is a pain to own; you always have to monitor his injury status, and Amendola is the new toy for Brady and Belichick to unleash upon unsuspecting defenses. Fantasy football isn’t a game played just for fun however, and winning at it isn’t easy (thank you, Mr. CD Carter. Read his book How To Think Like A Fantasy Football Winner to learn why that is (Even if you don’t want to read it, buy it, unless you hate Denny’s Child (But seriously, you should read it))), and best project-able selection is easily Nicks over Amendola.

In this edition of the Sports Wunderkind Fantasy Football podcast, Coleman and Davis sit down with Rich Hribar and discussed a live, 4 round Reality Sports Online Rookie Draft. Reality Sports Online is a unique fantasy football experience that is the closest thing you can get to being an NFL GM. The guys discuss all relevant fantasy football rookies and go off on some deeper fantasy tangents. You can check the draft here, and see rosters here.

Sports Wunderkind RSO Pod

My dynasty fantasy football goal this year was to put together dynasty ranks that I can keep updated constantly. Whenever I’m overthinking a trade, I can go back and look at where I have players ranked, then assuage my fears. To make these rankings, I used the method ProFootballFocus’ Scott Spratt wrote about here. I used point projections from the RotoViz Similarity Score apps, although it does come with one caveat: the app doesn’t know that Shonn Greene isn’t a starting running back anymore; it has no idea that LeSean McCoy has a new coach who ran the ball over 600 times last year. I manually adjusted for situation, and with a case like Shonn Greene, I used projections from ProFootballFocus to get an accurate value.

The end result was a spreadsheet of auction values, weighted towards the short term. I adjusted as I saw fit, trying not to deviate too far from what the numbers were telling me. I found that it made it much easier to rank players; everyone has a monetary value attached to their name. It helped remove my bias towards or against certain players. Instead of focusing on the names, I looked at production, years left, and situation. You can see the quarterback rankings below, but first I’ll talk about some player whom I’m much higher and lower on than the experts over at FantasyPros. ECR stands for Expert Consensus Ranking, the average of all the experts for that player.

Latavius Murray, OAK. RB45, +19 vs ECR.

Anyone who has spent more than 4 seconds on Twitter talking to me saw this coming from a mile away. Murray is a physical specimen in the vein of Adrian Peterson and Ryan Mathews. Obviously there’s a huge difference; AP and Mathews were top 15 picks, and Murray was passed over by every single team multiple times until the Raiders came calling in round 5. Murray is a slam dunk 3^rd round pick in rookie drafts, and a great later round selection. The physical talent is there, and should McFadden go down, so will the opportunity.

Christine Michael, SEA. RB33, +10 vs ECR.

Cream rises to the top, and Michael was made with the most precious of milks. Marshawn Lynch is a 27 year old power back who may not be as good as you think, and he’ll have to face punishment stemming from his DUI at some point. Michael is the most talented runner in this class, and could be a top 10 running back behind Seattle’s punishing offensive line. If you have a late 1^st round dynasty rookie draft pick, you’ll likely have the choice between two oft injured college backs: Michael and Marcus Lattimore. While dynasty GMs aren’t punishing Lattimore for being injured (and ignoring that his talent is a mirage), they are punishing Michael for the injuries, and ignoring his superior talent. Savvy owners will take advantage of this, trading down for someone salivating over Lattimore’s “top 15” talent, while you accumulate more picks and roster the much better player.

Steven Jackson, STL. RB17, +8 vs ECR.

Would you rather have Jackson or Chris Johnson? Ryan Mathews? I had to answer those questions while ranking, and I chose Jackson. I have a tough time putting him below guys who have question marks, since I think his production is going to be as close as you can get too guaranteed over the next 2 years. Michael Turner was an RB2 last year while averaging 3.6 yards per carry and only catching 19 passes. Jackson is clearly more talented than Turner, having been a rock of consistency during his career in St. Louis.

DeMarco Murray, DAL. RB8, +7 vs ECR.

The rotoViz Sim Score app loves Murray next year as an RB1. The only thing that’s held him back thus far have been injuries, which are wildly unpredictable year-to-year. Murray could hit a health streak at any time, a la Frank Gore and Fred Taylor. Murray is a great receiver out of the backfield, and the Cowboys pass heavy offense guarantees he’ll receive a healthy dose. The injury risk is baked into his current ADP of RB20.

Le’Veon Bell, PIT. RB20, +5 vs ECR.

Le’Veon Bell is the 2^nd most talented runner in this class in the best situation. He’s an immediate RB2 with a chance to perform as an RB1 if he handles 3^rd down work. He’s a workhorse back that you can grab in the middle of the 1^st round of your dynasty draft. Bell is a player film guys are going to miss out on since he played at around 250~ in college, making him appear giant and slow. Since then, he trimmed down to a svelte 230 pounds. The former Spartan is also an unheralded pass catcher, and his 10.99 Agility Score speaks to his future receiving value.

Matt Forte, CHI. RB15, -4 vs ECR.

I actually like Forte in the short term; his pass catching ability will slow his decline somewhat. I just can’t get behind him as an RB1 in dynasty. It was a struggle just to leave Peterson and Lynch there. I’d much rather have a player like Demarco Murray, especially at a similar ADP. Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles represent good arbitrage opportunities for Forte.

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX. RB22, -5 vs ECR.

MJD is coming off a Lisfranc injury, with a new zone-blocking system being installed. Sounds familiar? I doubt he’ll have quite the same implosion that DMC did, but I’m still terrified. It’s well known that MJD’s knees are bone on bone; now add the foot injury and this just reeks of a situation to avoid. Did I mention he’s a 28 year old 3^rd round pick in dynasty startups? Yikes.

Adrian Peterson, MIN. RB9, -5 vs ECR.
Those against Doug Martin as the #1 fantasy pick this year almost always reference the Oakland and Minnesota games, where he racked up a large chunk of his fantasy points. Proponents of AP as the #1 fantasy pick never reference that an inordinate amount of his fantasy points came from long runs:

Courtesy of PFF

Over half of Peterson’s total yardage came on Is he going have 40 runs of 15+ yards again? No. Is he going to average above 6 yards per carry again? Probably not. When I look at that table, I see a huge outlier year, and a player bound to regress. In dynasty, he’s a 28 year old running back coming off a career year. Translation: sell.

Thanks to the kind folks over at FantasyPros, you can view my entire dynasty running back rankings below:

After I finished my first set of rankings, I participated in several rookie drafts in a few of my leagues. I quickly found out that I wasn’t adhering to my own set of rankings, thus, a much needed updated. The ‘CHNG’ column gives you the difference in ranking slot from my 1st ranking to the most recent iteration. A few notes before you dig in:

• The top 5 is unchanged, although I wouldn’t fault you if you took Lacy over Bernard.
• The biggest change in my rankings is Christine Michael. I had the 1.06 in one league with Patterson staring at me, and I couldn’t pull the trigger. I would have taken Michael there, but I got an offer to trade down, and I was confident I could get him later on.
• Geno Smith is going to be the key to my late round quarterback strategy this year, and he’s coming at bargain basement prices. In one of my 12 team leagues, he didn’t go until the 3.02. Yes, the third round! Talk about undervalued.
• Latavius Murray keeps rising. I wouldn’t draft him as high as my ranking, because you simply won’t have too (although people are rapidly catching on, thanks DLF!).
• Zac Stacy fell massively after I took a deeper look at his workout and college production. He was the least productive of the Rams running backs in college on a per game basic. Here’s an excellent take on his long road to the starting job over at rotoviz.
• Aaron Dobson is rising. The only real lock for significant playing time on the roster is Danny Amendola, so Dobson could be in line for significant targets early on. He had an up and down college career, but there’s certainly untapped potential here.
• Johnathan Franklin is a tough player to rank. I think both backs will be involved to an extent, but Eddie Lacy is going to be the grinder who gets the touchdowns. I loved Franklin’s tape but the metrics don’t paint a pretty picture, and his situation is really bad.
• There isn’t anyone worthwhile behind Jamaal Charles, so why not take a shot on Kniles Davis?
• Sam McGuffie is a great player to monitor during Oakland’s OTAs. A bigger, more athletic Tavon Austin who didn’t do much on a terrible Rice offense.

Davis Mattek and Coleman Kelly are joined by Doug Veatch of Dynasty League Football to talk about undervalued 2013 fantasy football wide receivers in redraft and dynasty contexts. Players discussed include Nick Toon, Cecil Shorts, T.Y Hilton, Josh Gordon and Marques Colston.

Sports Wunderkind Fantasy Football Podcast with Doug Veatch