Sports Wunderkind

Quarterback Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

Coleman Kelly — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:47:20 +0000

My dynasty fantasy football goal this year was to put together dynasty ranks that I can keep updated constantly. Whenever I’m overthinking a trade, I can go back and look at where I have players ranked, then assuage my fears. To make these rankings, I used the method ProFootballFocus’ Scott Spratt wrote about here. I used point projections from the RotoViz Similarity Score apps, although it does come with one caveat: the app doesn’t know that Shonn Greene isn’t a starting running back anymore; it has no idea that LeSean McCoy has a new coach who ran the ball over 600 times last year. I manually adjusted for situation, and with a case like Shonn Greene, I used projections from ProFootballFocus to get an accurate value.

The end result was a spreadsheet of auction values, weighted towards the short term. I adjusted as I saw fit, trying not to deviate too far from what the numbers were telling me. I found that it made it much easier to rank players; everyone has a monetary value attached to their name. It helped remove my bias towards or against certain players. Instead of focusing on the names, I looked at production, years left, and situation. You can see the quarterback rankings below, but first I’ll talk about some player whom I’m much higher and lower on than the experts over at FantasyPros. ECR stands for Expert Consensus Ranking, the average of all the experts for that player.

Geno Smith, QB17. +9 vs ECR

Would people really rather have Eli Manning over Geno Smith? Sure, Smith is in a bad short term situation, but I have faith that John Idzik can turn that franchise around. Smith is a good quarterback to pair with veteran guys like Roethlisberger and Vick. They can hold your team together while Smith develops, and he can probably spot start for you should they go down. Don’t forget, Mark Sanchez was a top 12 quarterback in 2011. I’m in a $250 salary cap league where my quarterbacks are Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Geno Smith. For a combined $6, there’s a good chance one of my three players will produce a top 12 performance each week.

Michael Vick, QB16. +8 vs ECR

After a disastrous season when the Eagles were decimated by injuries, the experts have abandoned Vick, barely ranking him as a QB2. I see the QB16 in points per game last year entering a creative offense with a better offensive line. Vick is the 20^th quarterback going off the board, and represents a great value that late. I don’t see any other quarterback with top 5 upside in that range. If Chip Kelly wants to run what he ran at Oregon, Vick is the only option on the roster capable of that. There is a chance that he’s not going to do that, but we really don’t know. In a deeper league, you can handicap your chances of having the Eagles starter by grabbing Nick Foles as well.

Alex Smith, QB22, +6 vs ECR

The case for Alex Smith is very simple: he’s a quarterback in his prime who’s been remarkably efficient the last two seasons. Andy Reid has a reputation as a quarterback whisperer, and perhaps he do the same thing to Alex Smith that Jim Harbaugh did. Quarterbacks who have looked good in stints with Andy Reid include guys like Mike Kafka, Kevin Kolb, and A.J. Feeley. Can Alex Smith be any worse than they were? Additionally, Smith has legit skill position weapons in KC with Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe.

Tom Brady, QB5. +4 vs ECR

There is a ton of discussion on Twitter regarding how New England’s receiver situation will impact Brady in 2013. It’s likely overblown. Age is a concern; the Patriots signal caller will be 36 when the season starts. If you think 37 year old Peyton Manning can play 2 more years, why can’t Brady play for 3? Most film scouts will agree that Manning’s arm has lost velocity following his neck surgery; Brady doesn’t have that issue and he’s younger.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB11. +3 vs ECR

Roethlisberger is going to be on all of my teams last year. Todd Haley’s short passing offense rejuvenated Big Ben’s career, and he ranked as the QB10 in points per game last year. Ben still likes to hang in the pocket too long and get himself beat up, but you’re investing so little draft capital that it doesn’t matter. Grab an upside play like Joe Flacco or Sam Bradford to pair with Big Ben and stream yourself to fantasy glory. Shawn Siegele wrote an excellent article on Roethlisberger’s star potential here.

Drew Brees, QB9. -4 vs ECR

The Similarity Score app does not like Drew Brees; it places his floor as the QB12 next year. He’s compiled the raw statistics, but taking a closer look reveals some red flags. From 2009 to 2001, Brees completed 69.97% of his passes; that number fell to 63% in 2012. His touchdown percentage over that period fell from 7% to 6.4%, and his interceptions percentage rose from 2.1% to 2.8%. Granted, Brees’ numbers fell from superhuman to above average, but the decline is still worth noting. I’m willing to be wrong on Brees if it turns out that Sean Payton was the difference between him being superhuman or “just” above average. His ADP is as the QB2 though, which guarantees I’ll never own him.

Ryan Tannehill, QB20. -5 vs ECR

I detailed why I don’t like Tannehill here, but it boils down to this: because of his age and lack of experience, I’m betting that his development is stunted. He’s a player dynasty drafters are taking as a borderline QB1, when in reality his upside is capped as a QB2. He’s a prime sell high candidate, especially if you can get QB13 value for him.

Philip Rivers, QB26. -5 vs ECR

The last two seasons have been two of Rivers’ worst ever as a pro. His 6.8 yards per attempt is the worst since he became a starting quarterback, and his 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt is the 2^nd worst of his career. After posting an up and down season that saw him end as the QB9, the bottom fell out, and he plummeted to QB21. It’s possible that Mike McCoy’s short passing offense could rejuvenate Rivers’ fantasy prospects, but the Chargers roster – especially their offensive line – is a dumpster fire. They’ll be challenging Oakland for the worst team in the league next year. I’m not sure I want a piece of that on my fantasy team.

Christian Ponder, QB40. -11 vs ECR

It’s time to give up on Ponder. The 2011 top 15 pick has two mediocre seasons under his belt, where he’s averaged less than 7 yards per attempt. His adjusted net yards per attempt the last two seasons has been under 5, Derek Anderson and Chad Henne level-bad. Ponder reached his ceiling last year, as the QB22. It’s very likely he’s not the quarterback in Minnesota next year, as the Vikings will have given him the cursory three years for a 1^st round pick to prove himself. The offense has been upgraded around him, but I doubt he’ll be able to take advantage of it.

Without further ado, my dynasty quarterback rankings:

Dynasty and Keeper Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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About Coleman Kelly

21 year old Network Administration major from Central Connecticut. Football fanatic and New England Patriots fan. Lover of cats.

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NFL Draft Player Evalution: Jordan Reed, Tight End, The University Of Florida

Davis Mattek — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 20:41:05 +0000

Everyday until the 2013 NFL Draft, Coleman and I will be bringing you scouting reports, podcasts and other content, examining prospects that we have a particular interest in, whether it be affinity or disdain.

On today’s plate is Jordan Reed, a tight end from the University of Florida.

Strengths

-Breathtaking in the open field

-Very solid hands on plays that are developed for him to get the ball

-Impressive route runner for a man of his size

-Great size

Weaknesses

-Horrid blocker. Unacceptable at any level. Cannot play inline.

-Awkward tracking of the ball.

-Seems to fight the ball when he isn’t thrown in stride.

-Will be a project for a team that doesn’t have a perfect plan for him.

Reed is going to end up being the #3 tight end on my big board behind Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert. The game tape reveals a player that could be the focal point of an entire offense. As a player, he does have his limitations, which is why he isn’t worth being the #1 overall tight end in this class. However, as a receiver, he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the 2013 NFL Draft Tight End class.

Metric Perspective

Using the great tools over at Rotoviz, I did a comparison of Reed with Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert. Doing so provides useful analysis in several ways. Intially, Reed has been compared to Hernandez Ad Nauseum due to their similar body size, skills and the fact that they attended the same university. Comparing Reed with his contemporaries, Ertz & Eifert, allows for a great understanding of why he is so high in the 2013 draft class. Comparing any tight end to Rob Gronkowski is a measure of their ceiling, which is why he is included in this analysis.

Yards per target paints Reed as relatively average in this analysis, therefore we must move on to Market Share Of Yards.

By this measure, in his third year, Reed becomes *equals* to Hernandez and Gronkowski. Quite eye-opening to his long-term fantasy football potential. The inclusion of Gronkowski in the Market Share of TD’s basically broke the comparison tool because no one scores touchdowns like Rob Gronkowski, but Reed is in the same league as the 3 other players.

In general, the metrics perspective is kind to Reed. His numbers, both standard and advanced, don’t leap off the page, but they don’t damage him in any. However, the film is where Reed really comes alive as a prospect.

Film Perspective

I don’t see Aaron Hernandez as the best comp for Jordan Reed. To me, he is a more athletic James Casey or less atheltic and much larger Percy Harvin. His ability in the open field is not paralled by any tight end currently in football. Reed is a real weapon that is constantly put in motion and thrown screen passes that are designed to get him in the open field where he excels. There were a few times in the games that I watched where he raced along the sidelines and missed defenders like a running back. Having a tight end able to function out of the screen game is a huge boon for an offense because it boosts versatility. The reason that the scouting community goes nuts for players like James Casey, Percy Harvin, Darren Sproles, and C.J Spiller is that they force the defense to frequently adjust their schemes. If someone ever teaches Reed how to block, he could theoretically line up at fullback, slot receiver, X/Y receiver and even running back. I don’t imagine many who have watched Reed have come to this conclusion because his blocking is so poor. However, blocking is a skill that can be taught and learned. If Reed never develops as a blocker, he has a future as a slot receiver or an situational X wide out. The key will be finding a way to utilize him in space.

When Reed gets the ball in space and is allowed to dodge defenders, he looks like a future All-Pro. When the ball is thrown to him in a way that doesn’t get him perfectly in stride, he exemplifies the phrase ‘fights the ball’ more than anyone else in this class. He has a hard time adjusting to high balls and even with no defenders within 10 feet of him, secures the ball awkwardly. He won’t have that sort of space in the NFL. Where Reed does do well as a traditional tight end is in the Red Zone. While the numbers aren’t highly favorable, what I saw on film was a player who understands space and scheme, which allows him to get open and find soft spaces in the zone. He will be much taller than most linebackers who have to guard him and much, much stronger than any defensive back who draws him as an assignment and that is a definite recipe for redzone success. As a receiver, literally in the act of catching the ball, Reed has a lot to learn. I don’t think that limits his long term ceiling as a player. Technique is something that athletes like Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham and other athletic marvels have had to learn.

Fantasy Football Outlook:

There are a few ways that Reed’s career could go. He could end up being another Jermicheal Finley; an athletic world wonder that just never learns the nuances of the professional game and therefore never develops. On the other hand, he could go to a team with an inventive and helpful coaching staff and become a very meaningful fantasy player. If that best case scenario does occur and Reed gains 115 targets in a season, then he will be a top 5 tight end. The tight end position in both dynasty and redraft fantasy football is very fluid. There are the 3 studs of Gronk, Graham, and Aaron Hernandez and then everyone else. Reed’s breathtaking ability in the open field as well as his ability to find the softness in the defense while in the redzone give him a bright future. I would not admonish anyone for spending a first round dynasty rookie draft pick on Reed. Eifert and Ertz are much safer, but Reed has the highest ceiling.