With the 27th pick of the 2013 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans take DeAndre Hopkins. My number 1 ranked wide receiver, Hopkins is a red zone beast who’s going to complement Andre Johnson very well. Although he has average size (6’1″, 214) and below average speed (25th ranked Height-adjusted Speed Score in this class), Hopkins demonstrated his excellence against the toughest competition in college over the last two years. Despite his average athleticism, Hopkins routinely got open at will against NFL caliber corners and tough defenses. With Kevin Walter getting cut, there are 837 snaps up in the air. It’s safe to say that Hopkins is going to get playing time, and likely right away. He’ll only have to beat out Lestar Jean, Keshawn Martin, and Devier Posey. Only, right?

It’s possible that people will shy away from Hopkins due to the Texans run heavy offense, but I see this pick as a response to getting wrecked by offensive teams like the Patriots and Packers during the regular season and playoffs. It was only a few years ago that the Texans were a pass heavy team, throwing 550+ times in 2009 and 2010. Schaub isn’t a premier quarterback, but if the volume is there, the production will follow. The Texans offense will need to improve if they want to go deeper in the playoffs. Mike Clay of ProFootballFocus has Hopkins projected conservatively for 67 targets, 45 receptions, 612 yards, and 4 TDs.

The Denver Bronco’s offense underneath Peyton Manning is one of the most formidable units in the entire league. While Eric Decker often goes under-covered, he posted a 1,000 yard, 13 touchdown season. In the red zone, Decker has become a maneuverable chest piece that Manning uses to his advantage. Demaryius Thomas on the other hand is on the tips of everyone’s tongue when it comes to discussing. He is a tall, physical and fast receiver in the mold of Calvin Johnson who preceded him at Georgia Tech. These two wide receivers allow the rest of the bit players in the Bronco’s offense to fulfill their roles to perfect. While before Peyton had Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, the two Broncos receivers are probably the most physically talented pass catchers that Manning has ever played with. While they didn’t play great competition during the last strcech of the regular season, it was beyond impressive how the 2 wideouts and Manning produced consistently week after week. Despite being called No-Show Moreno for the last 2 years, Moreno has actually been a productive cog behind Manning; because Manning runs such a quick, no-huddle offense, the lead back rarely leaves the field. Moreno has proven up to this challenge. It is the job of the aging Baltimore Ravens defense to attempt to stop this finely tuned machine.

With the slowing down of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and other aging members of that defense, Baltimore’s defensive strength is much more reputation than actuality. In the absence of an elite corner to match up with Thomas, the Ravens defense is going to have to employ a variety of schemes to contain the ultra-talented receiver; that isn’t easy to do. That means that it is on Joe Flacco to match Peyton Manning. Put those two in a boxing ring, and maybe you would choose Flacco. On a football field, it is Manning and it isn’t close. Despite an otherworldly game by Anquan Boldin last week against the Colts, the Ravens offense is blah at best. Most thought when Cam Cameron got fired that there would be a real commitment to giving Ray Rice the ball. Instead, the Ravens whimpered out of the regular season before beating an over-matched Colts team. The formula for the Ravens to win this game is alot of Ray Rice, around 25 or 30 touches, with some deep play action shots to Torrey Smith while working the middle of the field with Dennis Pitta. I have no faith in new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell to put together such a gameplan effectively. This discussion of the offense leaves out the incredible performance of Von Miller and the Denver defense over the last two months. Despite an easy schedule, the team was absolutely suffocating to opposing offenses. The Ravens simply don’t have the firepower to hang with the Broncos. Final Score: Broncos 38, Ravens 21.

Houston Texans At New England Patriots

Well, I won’t go as far as saying that the Texans have no chance at winning like a certain Boston Globe columnist. However, the Patriots are the heavy favorites and they should be. With Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both finally healthy, the Patriots will finally be able to run the offense the way they wanted too all season long. With those two healthy, an effective Wes Welker and a bruising running game, this is possibly the best offense that Bill Belichick has ever put together. Having Gronkowski on the field is a matchup nightmare for a team that lost its’ best linebacker, Brian Cushing, to an ACL injury. While the Texans run defense has fared okay, over their recent collapse, the pass defense has lost every single bit of its luster. Tom Brady will be targeting the tight ends and Welker in the intermediate game and definitely throw a couple deep strikes to Brandon Lloyd. With Stevan Ridley finally becoming the bell-cow running back that a Belichick offense needs to be incredibly successful, this is the most complete and lethal Patriots offense since 2007. There is no way to construct a defense to fully combat the Patriots offense and the Texans are a distinct disadvantage. Much like the Broncos-Ravens game, that means that the opposing quarterback is going to have much more responsibility than the average game script would call for.

Unluckily for the Texans, Matt Schaub has completed devolved. He isn’t making the right reads, the right throws, the right decisions. Quite simply, something is off. After 12 games, the Texans were 11-1. They finished the season 1-3 to lose home field advantage and generally combust. At the heart of this collapse was Schaub’s terrible play. Over the last 3 losses the team had, Schaub did not throw a single touchdown pass and wasn’t able to get over 275 yards passing. His terrible performance, coupled with Arian Foster’s struggles before his resurgence against Cincinnati made it impossible for the Texans to be effective. Against the Patriots, Schaub will not have margin for error. While New England’s pass defense is improved, it still isn’t great. That means that Schaub will have a chance to the get the ball to Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels; if the coaching staff is smart, they will also try to the get the ball to Lestar Jean and Keshawn Martin in space. The Texans whole offense is built on the Arian Foster stretch play; if the Texans aren’t able to make that play effective against the Patriots stout run D, the Texans chances of victory are minimal.

No matter how well Matt Schaub plays, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Tom Brady and Bill Belichick don’t head to a 2nd straight AFC Championship game. Fate demands another Brady versus Manning bowl. Final Score: Patriots 32, Texans 24

In lieu of a NFL week 17 Start or Sit, it is much more appropriate to make general predictions as well as note general points of interest. If you are still playing fantasy football question, you are asking yourself hopeless questions like “Should I start Matt Ryan?” or “Is LaVonn Brazil a legit week 17 sleeper?” There simply is no point in pulling your hair out in an attempt to understand the horrible coach speak that all of the various playoff clinched teams are going to dole out all week. Playoff seeding and individual performance with an eye towards next year are much more important in week 17.

The most interesting thing for fans who don’t have a playoff team to root for is going to be Terrelle Pryor’s first NFL start. The last several years, there has been a mobile quarterback revolution. Micheal Vick’s 2010 season forever revolutionized the way that fans and front offices think of the quarterback position. Cam Newton’s 2011 season changed minds even further and now with Robert Griffin III, Russel Wilson and Colin Kaepernick’s success, tremendously athletic quarterbacks are going to be part of the new NFL trend. Even Terrible Tim Tebow has won a playoff game and led an effective running offense. If Pryor shows any of the promise in a real NFL game that he did in the preseason when he was throwing bombs to Juron Criner and being mobile in the pocket, the Raiders might have the beginning of an effective read option offense with Darren McFadden. Given the success of the 49er’s, Redskins and the Seahawks in running the read option, the Raiders coaching staff needs to start paying attention. McFadden simply hasn’t performed in the zone blocking running game and Pryor could provide incentive to change. Pryor’s performance will be important to monitor.

The Indianapolis Colts are going to remind the Houston Texans who owns the AFC South. Since the Texans inception they are 4-17 against the Colts and have won two division titles, both coming in the last two years. This was Peyton Manning’s division, and Andrew Luck is about to make it his. With Chuck Pagano returning to the sideline for the first time after his bout with leukemia, there is not a chance that the Colts are not amped up for this game. They also realize that if they beat the Texans, it hurts their playoff seeding and general morale. The Texans have not been playing good football; even in their prior victory in week 15 against the Colts, the team looked sloppy and lacking the power running game and stellar defense that makes them a Superbowl contender. While 2 months ago, this prediction would have been totally outlandish, the Texans have played themselves down to a very beatable level. Final score: Colts 35, Texans 32.

C.J Spiller is going to ensure that whatever idiot replaces Chan Gailey knows that he is the lead back, not Fred Jackson. This week 17 Toiletbowl has a history of producing huge running games, as in 2010, rookie running back Joe McKnight torched the Bills for 32 carries for 158 yards and has really never been heard from again, other than the odd 3rd down defensive play or kickoff. Spiller however, is no such one year wonder. C.J Spiller is top 5 in terms of NFL running back talent with Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch. Spiller is going to torch the Jets defense for 200 combo yards and multiple touchdowns, one through the air and one on the ground. Gailey’s replacement will not have a chance to bench Spiller, his performance this week simply won’t allow it.

The Dallas Cowboys are going to defeat Bob Griffin and the Washington Redskins. Now, as a Dallas homer, I actually want to pick against them. This is setting up perfect for the Tony Romo dagger to the heart interception in the 4th quarter, but Dallas has been playing tremendous football on the offensive side of the ball. Demarco Murray is helping the team set up play action passes, much to the delight of lead Cowboy’s fan and critic, Jonathan Bales. Dez Bryant is playing out of his mind and Washington’s depleted secondary doesn’t have much of a chance of containing him, Miles Austin or Jason Witten this time around. The Dallas defense is similarly banged up, but have the advantage of Demarcus Ware and Brandon Carr that Washington does not. The second time facing the read option offense and being more aware of RG3’s game is going to be an advantage for Dallas. Since the Jimmy Johnson era, this has been a game that the Cowboy’s have lost. No longer. Final score: Dallas 28, Washington 23.

In the battle of the anti-Superbowl, Kansas City is going to come out victorious. Thanks to the Texans choke job over the last month, both the Patriots and the Broncos have the ability to improve their seeding with a Texans loss. That means that the Broncos are playing their starters against the inept Chiefs, giving the Chiefs the #1 pick, which they will inevitably bungle.

Both Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson are going to achieve 2,000 yard performances. The truly interesting feat will be if Peterson is able to rush for 208 yards and break Eric Dickerson’s rushing record. Minnesota will be in the playoffs with a victory over Green Bay, and given that much match up, will probably be trailing at some point. Unless a few special teams or defensive plays go their way early, strategy would dictate that Minnesota should throw that ball. That mathematical strategy doesn’t account for the fact that Adrian Peterson can run for a first down at will and Christian Ponder has regressed into David Carr. If Peterson wants to get to 208 yards, he also needs Minnesota to win the game. Peterson’s record is in the hands of Minnesota’s defense; personally, I hope they come through.