The moment that will define the 2013 NBA Playoffs
Again. It’s happened again. Another superstar has fallen to injury at a crucial time in the year. Westbrook joins the ranks of Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, and Kobe Bryant in a group that no one wants to be in. The unfortunate timing of how important they are to their teams makes the actual injury even worse. It’s different when a Danilo Gallinari, or a David Lee get hurt, because while they are vital to their teams in their own unique ways, they simply can not have the sort of impact one of these special players can.
I really hate writing this article. This particular NBA season has been held under an extremely high-powered microscope. While there are the main, headlining stories we saw week in and week out (Lakers’ struggles, Heat dominance, Spurs agelessness) the number of smaller plots seen throughout this season were one of the greatest parts about it. Melo taking over New York, Denver’s run and gun, Steph Curry out-shooting everyone, how Chicago played without Rose, ect. While many of these stories have been compelling and worthy of media attention, Westbrook going down makes this a predictable season even more predictable.
People were attracted to these smaller plots because the idea of another Thunder-Heat Finals in which Miami likely wins isn’t attractive to the average NBA fan. So the Denver’s, the Golden State’s, the Houston’s got more attention than they otherwise would have. The focus strayed away from the probably-going-to-happen to the exciting unknown.
With Westbrook’s injury, the outcome of the season becomes even more clear. It’s what makes Russ’s injury all the more worse for the average NBA fan, as it appears the extremely likely is getting closer and closer to the inevitable. Obviously, I’m referring to the Miami Heat and their reign of dominance. LeBron has lost one game since January. His PER has reached insane (even for James) levels in the past few weeks (over 37 the last 10 games of the season). LeBron is reinventing the game before our very eyes. This is how the league of extraordinary white guys must have felt when Chamberlain and Russell started dunking all over them. Know it is no foregone conclusion that the Miami Heat will win their second straight championship (I’m looking at you, boiling hot KD, Steph Curry, and Dwigh- … oops. Too soon, Lakers fans? I say never soon enough.) It’s going to be incredibly difficult to predict WHO will make the Finals out of the West for the likely matchup with the Heat, especially due to the Clippers struggles, but when that matchup does come, does any team have a real chance against the Heat? This was a legitimate question that was being asked before Russ’s injury, who was the Thunder’s answer to Dwyane Wade. No disrespect to Reggie Jackson, who has played well in Westbrook’s absence, but does Houston win game 4 if number 0 plays? Probably not. He gives the Thunder a rare, incredibly vital dimension- a player who can get to the hoop at will. There are very few players in the league with that capability. Having that instant penetrator makes it so much easier to space the floor for a team’s 3-point shooters, which is what makes LeBron so successful in Miami.
So with all this being said, losing a player as big as Russ on a team as great as the Thunder means that it’s time to re-evaluate the Western Conference and see who has the best chance at making the finals. The Rockets are down three games to one so they aren’t included in this piece, but all other Western Conference teams have been reseeded by their probability of winning courtside seats to watch the Heat hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in June. Often times the funniest jokes are the ones with the most truth to them.
6. San Antonio Spurs
Ever since two of their big three went past their prime, I just haven’t trusted the Spurs. Either Gregg Popovich is a wizard or the best active coach in the league. My guess? He’s all three. Davis, this is where you should photoshop a picture of Doc with a wizard hat on into the article. Needs to happen. Any team playing Matt Bonner 25 minutes a night in the playoffs has to be up to some sort of witchcraft. Either that, or the team they played in the first round just sucks. Anyway, no matter who the Spurs play in the 2nd round, it’s a nightmare matchup for them. Both the Nuggets and Warriors out match them in terms of style of play and physically. They will, however, be remembered as the team that finally put down this terrible Lakers’ season, and for that, we thank the Spurs.
5. Denver Nuggets
The only reason why the Nuggets are behind the Grizzlies and even the Clippers are because they are down to Golden State 3-1, and it’s unlikely for them to win the series. This isn’t from lack of good basketball being played, it’s pretty much because Stephen Curry is playing like what little hair he has is on fire. If the Nuggets win tonight and shut the crowd up at the Oracle in Game 6, game 7 in Denver would set up nicely for the home team. They would then outrun the Spurs in round 2 and be faced with either the Thunder or the winner of the confusing-as-hell Clips/Griz series. While Denver’s success comes from their incredible team effort and chemistry, one specific player is worth noting as making a big leap in performance. Some people were skeptical about the 4 year, $48 million extension that Ty Lawson signed this summer, but he’s but those doubters to rest with a productive regular season and breakout postseason. Ty’s put up 23 points and 8 assists on an efficient 48% shooting in the first four games of the playoffs, as well as having multiple moments where you don’t realized that he’s scored until he’s halfway down back down the court for defense. Lawson is just so absurdly fast. Like, roadrunner fast.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
3. Los Angeles Clippers
Someone has to win this Memphis-LA series, right? Is that how the NBA works? The only close match was Paul’s pretty winner over Tony Allen in game 2, and every other game has been at least a 20 point blow out by the home team. Both teams have really struggled from beyond the arc, shooting a combined 37 of 129 (28.6%). The Clippers dominated the boards in games 1 and 2 and vice versa for 3 and 4. Not a single player for either team has played consistenly within what is expected of them, so honestly, anything could happen in this series. I give the slight edge to the Clips because of Chris Paul, but even the best point guard in the league hasn’t been his usual self. For his career he’s averaged over 10 assists a game in the playoffs but hasn’t eclipsed that figure once in the first four games. With Paul not playing his usual clutch playoff basketball, and Russ out, you can make a strong argument that the next team has the best remaining point guard in the playoffs…
2. Golden State Warriors
You hear that? That’s the sound of me riding on the Warriors’ playoff bandwagon. I’ve always loved watching this team, mostly because of their diehard fans and super loud arena, but this GS-DEN series has taken it to an entirely different level. Stephen freaking Curry, people. You want numbers? Oh, I’ve got numbers. Let me throw some playoff Stephen Curry numbers at you- 27.3 points, 10 assists(to only 2.8 turnovers), 2.8 steals (almost double his season average), 47% shooting from 3 (I honestly would have guessed higher, it seems like he hasn’t missed yet this series) for an outstanding true shooting rate of 66%, an insane offensive rating of 133, and lastly, a PER of, wait for it… 29.9. A full 8 points above his season average. One of the biggest questions when Steph came out of Davidson was whether or not he was a true point guard, but those doubts have been silenced by his outstanding assist percentage (38%) and assist to turnover ratio. It appears that the NBA game has really begun to slow down for Steph, as his overall playmaking ability has steadily gotten better each year, and has culminated with a sweet highlight video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0ot69_XTmE). The question is if he can sustain the incredible shooting rates, and if the supporting cast minus David Lee can provide enough help. Through the first four games this certainly has been the case. Curry (18 of 38), Klay Thompson (9 of 21), Harrison Barnes (7 of 16), and that’s right, even Draymond Green (4 of 8) are all shooting over 40% from beyond the arc (Jarrett Jack shot +40% during the regular season and is sure to pick it up from his meager 25% in the playoffs). Curry, Jack, Green, and Carl Landry have PERs north of 20 (29.9, 21.6, 21.8 and 21.2 respectively) and Andrew Bogut isn’t far behind at 17.4. Curry, Jack, Barnes, Bogut, Green, Thompson, and Festus Ezeli all havin true shooting rates over 60% (considered elite). It’s also worth noting that despite the fact that most of their players are not known for their defensive prowess, the Warriors play solid team thanks to assistant coach Mike Malone, one of the top defensive minds in the game who likely won’t be an assistant much longer. Golden State seem unstoppable at home, and if they can steal game 2 from the Nuggets (38-3 at home in the regular season) then they can probably beat anyone at home. It’s all about getting hot at the right time, and it appears that the Golden State Warriors appear to have done just that. (Steph’s 3rd quarter from game 4 is right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dbk7BlCShsE, it has 500,000+ views in two days)
1. Los Angeles Lakers
Just kidding. Couldn’t resist myself.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Following Westbrook’s injury, I was all ready to pencil in the Clippers. They dominated the first two games against Memphis, CP3 was snapping into otherworldly-playoff-monster-Chris-mode, and their biggest competition is A. hurt (Thunder) B. old as balls (Spurs) C. just had their home game winning streak snapped by a team with Andris Biedrins on it (Nuggets [and P.S., Biedrins is making $9 million a year and averaged 9 minutes a game this year, almost all in garbage time. He made a million dollars for every minute he averaged walking his goofy self up and down the court in blowouts. Life isn’t fair, friends]). But LAC has struggled the last two games, leaving the series tied up at 2-2, while the Thunder still have the best player in the conference. Anyone who says otherwise is wrong. And it’s not just Durantula; Ibaka is playing some of the best ball of his career. He has a 23.2 PER, is getting better at interior defense while still being an elite shot blocker (10% block percentage) and is turning into a legitimate three point shooter, which as I stated in the intro is super important in terms of stretching the floor and opening things up for number 35. Kevin Martin, Reggie Jackson, and Derek Fisher are all shooting lights out from three, and Nick Collison, Hasheem Thabeet, and Thabo Sefolosha have all been providing their typical productive minutes. (worth noting, Kendrick Perkins has one of the lowest positive PERs I’ve ever seen through the first four playoff games, .7). Along with his supporting cast, Kevin Durant will simply not allow Oklahoma City to bow out of these playoffs. I fully expect him to average 35-8-6 at the very least for the remainder of these playoffs. And if there is one thing that the NBA has taught is, especially in the last few years, it is that most of the time (note, I say MOST of the time) the team with the best player is victorious.
Full-time University of Nebraska-Omaha student, hotel front desk worker, speech and music nerd, overall swell guy. Add me on facebook or follow me on twitter @KidCutskey
