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These are your Sports Wunderkind Week 14 fantasy football rankings. Contact me on twitter, @davismattek, with any questions about trades or start/sits!

– John Wall, 2013

A lone banner hangs like a question mark from the rafters inside the Verizon Center, reading ‘NBA World Champions 1977-78.’ When the starters shimmy and shake their way through introductions, few look up. Even fewer glance at the silhouetted banner; these moments are brief and unnoticed.

Four decades ago, the Washington Bullets were amongst the league’s elite, the only team to play in the NBA Finals four times in the 1970s. Since renaming the team in 1997 – you can count the number of playoff series victories the Wizards have won on a single finger. Since 1981-82 you can count it on two. Washington’s fandom continuously attempts to swallow pejorative commentary for a team that chokes its way through fourth quarters. Ascribe it to immaturity, the hapless story of the Washington Wizards.

Randy Whittman, head coach since 2012, hasn’t been to the playoffs in seven years of coaching. Just five players on his roster have. Naivety in the waning minutes has been Washington’s conundrum for years, exacerbated yet again this season.

Washington has garnered three Top 6 draft picks since ‘09, each armed with a prowess for scoring. Their roster averages 25 years of age, amongst the lowest in the NBA. Equipped with the league’s most latent backcourt, Washington’s perimeter can turn each possession into a pick-and-roll nightmare. Lack-of-talent can no longer be deemed the overarching-scapegoat.

The challenge of immaturity however, continuously reaffirms itself as Washington’s crux. Just three years ago, teammates Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton brought firearms into the Wizards’ locker room. Bradley Beal – who cannot even legally buy himself a drink yet – laces up his shoes nearby. The players may be gone, but the roots remain beneath him.

As Bleacher Report’s Bryant T. Jordan put it, “Washington’s problem isn’t lack of talent, it’s lack of professionalism.” Showcased again this year, Washington (4-8) has outscored their opponent just three times in the fourth quarter this season. Once was after Miami pulled their starters for the final nine minutes.

Closely contested games have eaten the Wizards this year, a trend proven by three decades of just falling short. 10 games have been decided by 11 points or less. Turnovers, blown assignments, and lack of willpower are just a handful of symptoms Whittman has attributed. Immaturity has raised its head in many forms, and while addressed behind a podium, remains stagnantly addressed on-court.

Washington faces a division including two teams that have yet to miss the playoffs in seven years (Miami/Atlanta). They’re marred by the heartache of final-minute-combustions, injury-riddled-stretches, and years of lukewarm efficiency. Mental fortitude continues to stand between Washington and their first playoff appearance in six years.

Only the Wizards can decide if they’re mature enough to win in crunch time. Washington’s youthfulness is the inexorable ghost, the haunt that keeps their lone banner and playoff hopes in shadows.

-L. Frank Baum, The Marvelous Land of Oz

There some situations bound by the laws of nature. That is to say, a New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox matchup will have a profound gradient of tension comparative to a minor league exhibition. That is to say, a Chicago Bulls/Indiana Pacers matchup will feel more struggle and sweat than a youth league pickup. -And just as a child staring directly into the sun would lead you to believe, tempting fate is one of humanity’s most prominent errors bound by those laws.

At a certain point when your team: is gauged higher in just about every statistical category listed, particularly on defense where they hold the top spot in ‘points allowed per game’ with 86.3; has arguably the best 23-year-old in the sport, who’s off to the best start to a season – in nearly everything – of his career; and has the best record in the NBA through 3 weeks, including trouncing the team you’re about to play by 17 points just ten days ago, it’s going to be expected of you to continue that torrential pace – and sometimes your knees just have to buckle.

Overwhelming the Pacers in all but two categories (fast break points, blocks) the Bulls (5-3) dealt Indiana their first loss of the early season (9-1), garnished with an efficient and improbable performance from Derrick Rose – who was returning from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Friday night matchup with Toronto.

It would be too easy to catalog analysis on the fact that every single Indiana starter played to a plus/minus of less than -10, so game grades it is!

                Chicago Bulls 110              |               Indiana Pacers 94

Carlos Boozer, PF

26 MIN | 6-11 FG | 1-2 FT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 3 TO | 4 PF | 13 PTS

While Carlos’s numbers didn’t dazzle to the tune of his season average (16.9 PPG/8.0 RPG), his ejection alongside Indiana’s Chris Copeland with 21 seconds left was arguably one of the worst calls this season and weakest technical foul since…well, the one that was called a quarter prior on Kirk.

Grade: B

Luol Deng, SF

32 Min | 8-14 FG | 6-7 FT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 3 TO | 3 PF | 23 PTS

Luol appears to be using the ‘one-night-on, one-night-off’ approach which is a tad disconcerning for contract enthusiasts but Deng did lead Chicago in scoring for the fourth time this year on a night that, thankfully, kept him inside the arc. Can’t complain there.

Grade: A-

Joakim Noah, C

32 MIN | 1-6 FG | 2-4 FT | 7 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 3 TO | 6 PF | 4 PTS

After a dazzling Friday night against Toronto, Joakim didn’t bring his best Saturday, a commonly growing occurrence against larger frontcourts – particularly Hibbert or as he’s being called this year ‘a fucking monster.’ Maybe he was tired, maybe he was simply dominated by Hibbert’s tangible improvement defensively this offseason (4.6BLKPG), but Noah will need to perform better when these matchups are actually tight late in the fourth.

Grade: C

Derrick Rose, PG

31 MIN | 7-16 FGM | 3 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 0 TO | 1 PF | 20 PTS

As Kelly Scaletta pointed out, this is the second straight game for Rose without a TO or FTA, a first in his career. That’s pretty incredible considering his living if often made driving to the basket, but Rose found himself a blanket and laid down around the arc Saturday. Derrick Rose played as he had throughout a majority of preseason – oftentimes around the perimeter, showcasing an improved three-point shot (6-11). His attack to the rim looked tentative, hence the 2 points coming inside of 23-feet, but critics of Rose’s tenacity towards the rim Saturday are also proponents of the ideology: if it ain’t broke, fix it immediately. Rose’s defense again appeared dynamic as he was able to keep George Hill in check most of the game and rotate cleanly to his assignment on the pick-n-roll.

Grade: A-

Jimmy Butler, SG

25 MIN | 2-3 FG | 5-6 FT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 1 PF | 10 PTS

Jimmy played arguably the most efficient of the Bulls starters, and even cracked the highlights with an amazing four-point play, and this block on Solomon Hill leading to a fastbreak basket from Deng:

 Grade: A

Taj Gibson, PF

27 MIN | 7-13 FG | 1-1 FT | 8 REB | 2 BLK | 1 TO | 3 PF | 15 PTS

If he can average 15/8 a game, the Bulls will win the rebounding battle most nights (Bulls won battle 42-37) and that allows the offensive scheme a chance to compete regardless of whether or not the shooting is there (which has been spotty for the Bulls thus far, to say the least). Taj also played some great defensive minutes on David West late in the game, showing his improvement on both sides.

Grade: B+

Mike Dunleavy, SF

23 MIN | 4-5 FG | 4 REB | 2 AST | 1 TO | 2 PF | 10 PTS

Dunleavy hit both three-point attempts and played tactile offensively down the stretch for Chicago. It’s also worth noting that Dunleavy has played his best ball against Division opponents, averaging 10.3 per game on 58% shooting. While the Bulls have only played 3 Division games, 2 have come against Indiana – the top defense in the league and viable Miami-Heat-surrogate. While his consistency has a ways to go, particularly his defensive rotational work, it’s comforting knowing that Dunleavy is making plays against teams that actually play well together.

 Grade: B

Nazr Mohammed, C

11 MIN | 1-1 FG | 1 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 0 TO | 1 PF | 2 PTS

This is what I want Nazr’s stat line to look like always: low minutes, few shot attempts, and 1 foul just so his newfound reputation isn’t blemished post-Lebron:

 Grade: B

Kirk Hinrich, SG

33 MIN | 4-10 FG | 4-4 FT | 4 REB | 8 AST | 1 BLK | 3 TO | 3 PF | 13 PTS

Some nights Kirk seems to be the bane of Chicago existence, sometimes he’s adequate – tonight was another adequate night. YAY FOR KIRK! While he was tortured defensively and had his share of ‘NO, KIRK!’ moments particularly shooting in the 3rd, Hinrich gave the Bulls valuable minutes off the bench and kept the offense running without Rose and was even flashed in perhaps a rare Thibodeua lineup model: Rose, Hinrich, Deng, Gibson, Noah.

Grade: B-

The Bulls next play Monday night against the Charlotte Bobcats (5-5) in the United Center where they will attempt to win their fifth straight since losing to Indiana earlier this month. Indiana didn’t like losing that game, Chicago relished winning it in dominant fashion, and Tony Snell…well, Tony Snell continued to do whatever Tony Snell does.

With the 2013 NBA preseason in the books for Chicago Bulls fans (8-0), it’s finally time to – yet again – revel in the moments just before the nautical dawn of the 2013-2014 regular season. The good news is we only have to sit close-fisted 96 more hours to see what many of us have been waiting upon for well over a year. The tantalizing notion of a championship in a city that has been swept under the rug by LeBron James governed teams for three of the last four seasons or the unlikely aptitude of a Thibodeau squad to remain in any way cohesive physically by season’s end.

While Mike Dunleavy, Tony Snell, and Erik Murphy are in no way transcending pieces, this team appears far more balanced and dangerous in the half-court than any since Thibodeau came on three years ago.

It’s almost humorous to consider the Bulls are looking to improve on what many believed to be a quasi-hollow 2012 season, a mixture of insatiable progress and unnerving torment. The desire for progression and respect from a battered yet dauntless coalition whose shear will-power kept a city afloat into the second round of the playoffs.

After reexamining their 2013-2014 regular season schedule, I have Chicago going 61-21. Still seeing the Heat coming out as the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at 63-19 and taking the season series against the Bulls, but a closer conference hierarchy in 2013 than we’ve seen in a while.

Most intriguing games:

10/29/13 – at Heat: This is it. Here’s to hoping Nazr Mohammed isn’t starting at center with Noah doing his best rendition of Greg Oden in the past week. Expect beaming smiles, shiny rings, and explosions the whole family can enjoy.

11/06/13 – at Pacers: Noah/Hibbert Rose/Hill Butler/George, I’m sold.

11/24/13 – at Clippers: What will this Chris Paul – Derrick Rose matchup yield? An overwhelming amount of advertisements both are stars in? Please no more, State Farm. I’m also slightly hoping Jordan or Griffin have a fast-break opportunity on Boozer just because.

12/11/13 – at Knicks: A shootout or a shutdown. Jr. Smith going off or Thibodeau going hoarse by halftime, which one is more plausible?

12/19/13 – at Thunder: With Westbrook back, the Thunder transition game will be in full-effect. Boozer could do the impossible and out-muscle an opponent for the first time since his Utah days. God only knows what Kendrick Perkins’ off-season consisted of.

01/29/13 – at Spurs: When searching for Rose’s highlights, you’ll find a multitude of them coming against a Tim Duncan matchup: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZimlxGDbPi0

02/09/13 – at Lakers: With Kobe back and the all-time scoring ranks on his mind, this matchup is sure to produce something memorable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxHl9JYm-IM

03/03/13 – at Nets: Will Jason Terry make a fool of himself in front of a national audience? Will Noah blaze his pistols? All I know is this should end up being a game both of these teams desperately want.

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It’s a tough week on Draftstreet with most of their prices, but there are a few guys who I think they missed on (This week there will be alot of guys left out of these rankings strictly because they’re so expensive). Here’s what I’m thinking for this week.

QB

1. John O’Korn – Houston

This might seem a little absurd to some people, just hear me out. Rutgers is giving up the most fantasy points to QB’s this season. They’re giving up 306 yards per game through the air and have already given up 15 passing TD’s. Not enough for you? O’korn is cheap, the 22nd most expensive QB at only 13k.

2. Sean Mannion – Oregon State
WHY IS HE ONLY 17 K?!?!?!?! The guys at Draftstreet still haven’t figured this out. He leads the nation in passing yards and TD’s and is second in completions. I understand he’s playing against a pretty tough Stanford defense, but nobody has really been able to slow this team down and I don’t expect that to start now.

3. Tajh Boyd – Clemson
Tajh had one of his worst perfomances in recent memories last week against Florida State. I’m sure he wants to get that awful taste out of his mouth and have a great game this week. Clemson might look to make a point that last week was a fluke and just let Tajh sling it for all 4 quarters and rack up gobs of points. I love Clemson this week, they have something to prove.

4. Garrett Gilbert – SMU
Temple is the 6th worst pass defense on DS this week. SMU has come out saying they plan on running the ball more because Temple’s run defense is even worse than their pass defense. But that shouldn’t take away too many throws from Gilbert to one of his explosive receivers. Gilbert runs this offense with pretty good efficiency and is pretty fond of throwing TD’s.

5. Tommy Rees – Notre Dame
They’re playing Air Force. That’s explanation enough. Air Force is just flat out awful. Notre Dame has yet to blow a team out because they can’t get their offense firing on all cylinders. I think this is the week they finally blow up for a big game and Tommy Rees will be the big reason for that.

6. Kevin Hogan – Stanford
Hogan is one of the more consistent QB’s in the country. He’s probably not gonna blow up and give you 40, but he’s never gonna be a dud either. Last week was his worst week so far and he still put up 15 points. Oregon State’s defense isn’t nearly as good as UCLA, and this might turn into a shootout. Watch for Hogan to have another solid game in what looks like should be a really good football game.

7. Christian Hackenberg – Penn State
Penn State is coming off of a bye week, which means they’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for Ohio State and learn how to gash that secondary that just got picked apart by Iowa. IOWA, a run first team, scored 3 TD’s through the air against Ohio State. Penn State’s passing attack is much better than Iowa, and Hackenberg just continues to impress.

8. Daniel Sams – Kansas State
Sams sliced up Baylor’s defense with his legs a couple weeks ago for 199 yards and 3 TD’s. He’s gonna get his chances to run the ball, and that will help him meet value. If Snyder gives him another chance to throw the ball, he just might have a huge game.

Running Back

 1. Bishop Sankey – Washington
Yes, Sankey has a pretty high price tag. But he is a must play this weekend. Cal is just bad, but their offense airs it out enough to hit a couple big plays and stay in some games. The Cal defense is giving up just over 30 fantasy points per game to RB’s, and have yet to encounter a dominant back like Sankey. 200 yards and 3 TD’s isn’t out of the question.

2. Kadeem Carey – Arizona
Another juicy matchup with Colorado here. Arizona should win this game and be playing from ahead the entire time, which just gives more carries to Kadeem. And on the off chance that Colorado keeps it close, Carey is second on the team in receptions. He’s been one of the safest backs every week and that will continue through this week.

3. Cam McDaniel – Notre Dame
Again, Air Force. McDaniel is the feature back in this offense, but he’s not leading the team in yards because of one huge 80 yard run from George Atkinson. McDaniel is the more talented runner and more consistent play. Not to mention he’s $600 cheaper than his backfield counterpart.

4. Lache Seastrunk – Baylor
Baylor has a great matchup with KU this week and I expect Seastrunk to fully take advantage of that. KU was Seastrunk’s coming out party last year, when he got his first solid workload and his first 100 yard game. Lache should have no problem getting his sixth hunred yard game this season.

5. Storm Johnson – UCF
Central Florida is surprising alot of people this year. Not going to say I’m not surprised, but I can understand how they’re winning football games. Storm Johnson is good. He’s one of the most consistent fantasy backs there is, scoring at least 13 points in every single game. He’s also recently been getting more involved in the receiving game, including a touchdown in a great performance against Louisville.

6. T.J. Yeldon – Alabama
Yeldon has been running with a purpose for the last couple games and that is great to see. He ripped Kentucky to pieces, which is what he should do against a similarly bad Tennessee team. Also, I’m loving the fact that sites across the industry have been lowering his price every week because Kenyan Drake is getting more involved. Yeldon is still the feature back and will generally still be the better play.

7. Andre Williams – Boston College
Williams is getting a ton of carries this year, and for the most part, has been pretty efficient with them. North Carolina is pretty awful against the run this year. UNC is favored by a touchdown, but that shouldn’t be a problem since BC seems to run no matter what the scoreboard says. Williams has been solid this year and should take advantage of this great matchup.

8. Jeremy Langford – Michigan State
Langford has been playing much better over the last couple games, and going up against a porous Illinois defense should only help his confidence and boost his stats. Melvin Gordon racked up 142 yards and 3 TD’s on only 17 carries against this Illinois team. Langford isn’t as talented as Gordon, but he could still put up a similar stat line with his heavy workload.

9. Traylon Shead – SMU
Most people think of SMU as an “air it out” type of team, which is pretty much what they have been so far this year. That’s because they didn’t realize what they had in Traylon Shead. He hasn’t been spectacular, but he has been a serviceable back, which is something SMU hasn’t had all year long. Shead is coming off of a solid game against Memphis, where he put up 21 fantasy points. This week, he gets to play against Temple this week, who is just awful defensively. This could be Traylon’s first 100 yard, multi-TD game.

10. Mark Weisman – Iowa
Weisman is a big bruiser who won’t hesitate to run you over. He’s had a great stat line in every game that Iowa either won, or kept it very close for the whole game. When they need him to perform, he does just that. Northwestern is giving up just over 22 fantasy points per game to running backs, and I think that just the area Weisman will be when it’s all said and done.

Wide Receiver

1. Deontay Greenberry – Houston
Did I mention how terrible Rutgers pass defense is? Well, it’s atrocious. They’re giving up a whopping 44 fantasy points per game to WR’s. That comes out to about 307 yards and 2.5 TD’s per game. Greenberry should easily get 100+ and a TD or two. I’m all in on him this weekend.

2. Tevin Reese – Baylor
People always wonder how people rank Reese and Goodley on a given week. I asked around a little bit and the most popular answer I got was pricing. The two are almost impossible to predict, but we know they’re always both going to have a solid game. Feel free to play Goodley if you have the cap space, but I think Reese is due for a huge game.

3. Allen Robinson – Penn State
Ohio State hasn’t been good against the pass this year. That might be because of their undefeated record, forcing teams to throw for most of the second half. But maybe, they’re just not good against the pass. Either way, Ohio State is a 15 point favorite in this one, so Penn State should be playing from behind for most of the game. Allen Robinson has shown himself to be a garbage time hero of sort, catching 24 of his 43 passes and 4 of 5 TD’s all in the second half. His two biggest games have also been in PSU’s two losses.

4. Jeremy Johson – SMU
Johnson has solidified himself as the WR1 on this SMU team. They get a fantastic matchup against a porous Temple defense. He has at least 10 catches in his last three games, including his ridiculous performance against Rutgers where he went off for 18-217-3. Look for Johson to continue his 10 catch streak this week.

5. TJ Jones – Notre Dame
Air Force, Air Force, Air Force. Jones has slowly pulled away from Davaris Daniels for the WR1 spot this year, and somehow, his price tag has consistently dropped. I’m okay with that. He probably won’t play in the fourth quarter, but he should have a full game worth of stats by then. Gotta love that Air Force defense.

6.Sammy Watkins – Clemson
Sammy!!!! Why can’t you just go off and have the incredible game that we all know you’re capable of?!?! I think Sammy and the rest of this Clemson offense are going to play with a bit of a chip on their shoulders after getting obliterated last week by Florida State. I think this is the game that Sammy finally goes somewhere in the range of 10-200-2.

7. Allen Hurns – Miami (FL)
I’ve seen a ton of talk about Stephen Morris and how he’s way underpriced because he’s going to blow up. (Morris is my 9th ranked QB this week, still worth a play) So I figure, if Morris blows up, he has to throw the ball to someone. Why not Allen Hurns? He’s been consistent. Very consistent, and Stephen Morris has shown that Hurns is his favorite target. So go ahead and roll him out there.

8. Dres Anderson – Utah
Best receiver in an offense that loves to throw it and is a 7 point underdog. Sounds like the recipe for fantasy success! Many people wonder if Travis Wilson is going to play. He said in an interview that he’s going to “suck it up and play.” This is good for Dres and the rest of the Utah offense who is going to need to have a solid game against a pretty good USC defense.

9. L’Damian Washington – Missouri
Maty Mauk has shown that he can be a serviceable QB in this offense when they give him the chance to throw it. He put up a pretty good game against a vicious Florida defense. South Carolina is nothing close to Florida, who contained Washington to 3 catches for 84 yards. Remember a couple weeks ago when Washington went 7-115-2? Something similar to that isn’t out of the question this week.

10. Quinshad Davis – North Carolina
Somebody besides Eric Ebron can be useful from the UNC vertical attack? Yes, it is possible. Though I do like Ebron a bit more than Davis, I still think that the mediocre Boston College defense will be focusing more on Ebron and give more openings to Davis. He’s also caught a TD in 5 out of 6 games.

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Fresh off the presses, these are your week six fantasy football rankings, for both standard fantasy football and PPR fantasy football leagues. I’ve changed the way I do projections just a tad, hoping to improve accuracy. If these fantasy football rankings aren’t explanatory enough, contact me on twitter @davismattek.

Davis and Coleman are joined by JJ Zachariason of numberfire.com and lateroundqb.com to talk about the specialty metrics at nF and the difference between forming opinions based on one stat or another. The guys plant their flags on several players and then talk about players to watch in week 1 that are on the waiver wire speed dial.

Coleman Kelly’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings versus the Expert consensus on FantasyPros.

Adrien Robinson, New York. TE29, +13 vs ECR.

Robinson is pure athletic upside. Tight end is that strange position where you don’t necessarily have to have performed well in college to have success. Robinson is dinged for not doing much as a collegian, but we’ve seen it happen before. The Giants signed ex-Oakland tight end Brandon Myers to a 4 year contract, but there’s no money guaranteed in years 2 through 4, so they can get rid of him for nothing if Robinson pans out (or if Myers turns in a Myers-esque pedestrian performance). He’s a player I’ll be monitoring closely in the preseason, as he’s probably not even rostered in medium sized leagues.

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh. TE11, +12 vs ECR.

Heath Miller was a top 4 tight end last season before he shredded his knee against Cincinnati, and became a huge value in drafts. Miller is still only 30, and it’s becoming apparent he won’t be on the PUP list to start the season. In dynasty, he makes a fantastic bridge player. My ideal strategy would be to punt on tight end until you have a chance to draft Jordan Cameron in the 10^th round, then grab Ladarius Green and Heath Miller in the late rounds. That gives you two startable candidates in the short term (Cameron/Miller, assuming knee health), with the long term upside of Green.

Jordan Cameron, Cleveland. TE7, +5 vs ECR.

The biggest reason to fall in love with Jordan Cameron is the situation: Rob Chudzinski and Norval Turner coming together is any tight ends dream. Both coaches have featured tight end heavy attacks the last few seasons; Turner with Antonio Gates, and Chudzinski with Greg Olsen. Cameron’s body and athleticism are already reminiscent of another basketball player turned star NFL tight end. If Cameron gets 100+ targets on the season, he’s guaranteed to be a low end TE1. Last year, Brandon Myers sucked his way into 105 targets, catching 79 of them for 806 yards and 4 touchdowns; good for TE11 numbers. Cameron can do that, and has the elite athletic upside other players in his area don’t have.

 Ladarius Green, San Diego. TE25, +5 vs ECR.

Green is an Aaron Hernandez-type move tight end with height (6’6”) and speed (4.45) to burn. Antonio Gates’ body has been breaking down over the last few years, giving Green the path to playing time he needs. With the injuries to Danario Alexander and Malcolm Floyd, someone has to catch the ball. Vincent Brown isn’t the answer, and Keenan Allen is still having trouble with the knee he injured in college, so why can’t it be Green? Warning: people are catching on, and his ADP has risen from TE30 to TE25 over the last 3 months. Buy him while you still can.

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota. TE9, -5 vs ECR.

Over the last 2 seasons, Rudolph has converted 55% of his red zone targets into touchdowns, a Gronkian level of red zone conversion. Outside of the red zone, he has only 2 career touchdowns. Last year, Rudolph never had more than 67 yards in any game. The former Golden Gopher was Minnesota’s key red zone threat last year, but he’s no longer the only game in town. The Vikings drafted Cordarrelle Patterson (career 50% RZTDR in college) and signed free agent wide receiver Greg Jennings (29% career RZTDR, very good for a small receiver). With 3 legitimate options on offense now, the Vikings won’t just pepper Percy Harvin with targets, then toss it up to Rudolph in the end zone. I’d avoid drafting him at TE5.

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati. TE15, -7 vs ECR.

A high-end TE2 is the sweet spot for Eifert, in my opinion. As the Bengals continue to add offensive weapons, can we be sure there will be enough to go around for Eifert? Over the last 3 years, they’ve added Jermaine Gresham, A.J. Green, Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones, and Giovani Bernard. In the short term, Gresham is there to cannibalize targets, and in the long term there might be too many mouths to feed. We haven’t even talked about how Eifert and Gresham might be more similar than you think.

Jermichael Finley, Green Bay. TE17, -8 vs ECR.

Players who finished higher than Jermichael Finley last season: Marcedes Lewis, Lance Kendricks, Scott Chandler, and Aaron Hernandez (who basically played with 1 foot most of last year). Finley has all the athletic upside in the world, but can’t and hasn’t put it together. He’s in the last year of his contract with the Packers, and hey, does anyone remember when they were going to cut him? The Packers have given him every opportunity to exceed, including having the best quarterback in football throwing him ball, and even playing him at wide receiver more than any tight end in the league. He repaid them with 66 catches for 667 yards and 2 touchdowns. Finley’s situation can only get worse when the Packers inevitably move on.

Scoring touchdowns is good. Just inherently, scoring touchdowns is a good thing. I certainly don’t believe in the concept of “nose for the endzone”, at least just from watching players, but there are players who are inherently skilled at scoring. For fantasy football purposes, consistency by the way of yards is pretty nice, but finding players who are adept at scoring, by usage or by skill is valuable. For wide receivers, it’s easier to identify physical traits that aid in helping score touchdowns (height, large hands), the same is not so for running backs. The table that follows is all players with 15 or more rushing attempts inside in the 10 yard line and those players conversion percentages. (touchdowns/attempts). Data provided by Pro Football Reference.

• Given the context of the Lions backfield, it has to be a little worrisome to the Reggie Bush supporters that Mikel Leshoure owns the highest TD rate of any player at 56.25 and Reggie Bush is never the bottom at 16% with only 4 touchdowns on 24 looks.
• Arian Foster, with a mammoth amount of rushes inside in the 10 yard line still converted 28% of his looks into touchdowns. Defenses knew what was coming and Foster was still able to consistently score.
• Steven Jackson has been annoited as an extreme value for fantasy football, due to the sheer number of touchdown opportunities he will be given. As a member of the Rams over the last 3 years, Jackson converted 23.4% of his looks, and the ancient Micheal Turner converted 25.69% of his looks the last 3 years on the Falcons. The sheer discrepancy in inside-the-10 touches moves the fantasy indicators up for Jackson. Over the last 3 seasons, Turner has received 62 more carries than Jackson. On average, Turner received 36 carries in side the 10. If Jackson were to receive the same looks and convert his 3 year average, that would set a baseline of 8 touchdowns. However, given the awfulness of the offensive line play and the offense in general, I think S-Jax’s conversion rate spikes.
• His Godliness Tim Tebow converted 50% of his 10 yard touches, and the exact opposite of Tebow (Mike Vick) converted 45%, which leads me to believe that rushing quarterbacks have much wider lanes in which to score. If Tebow lined up a running back, that percentage would shrink.
• Cam Newton: 44 attempts, 17 touchdowns. Just another reminder that he is the Panthers goalline back.

The saga continues on WR speed. Yesterday I looked at wide receivers who ran slower than 4.56 40 in the NFL Combine Results database who were drafted in between rounds 1 and 3. Today, we will look at wide receivers with a 40 time faster or equal to 4.55 seconds (the sweet spot of 40 times for WR performance) drafted in between rounds 1 and 3.

As you can imagine, as WR speed increases, the likelihood of being drafted in rounds 1 through 3 increases. The first table had just 28 players; the table of players this time includes 115 individuals.

The raw data tells us initially that 37% of these receivers running faster than a 4.55 post at least 1 top-30 season, and that 24% of these players record multiple top-30 seasons, compared to 32% and 21% for players running slower than a 4.55. 27, or 62%, of the 43 players with top-30 seasons were 6 feet or taller. Compared to the slower wide receiver graph, where every single player that posted a top 30 season was over 6’1″. That immediately gives us a correlation to height for wide receiver performance. The slower a pass catcher is, the taller they need to be to increase their odds at a top 30 season.

Removing all of the rookies and 2nd year players (T.Y. Hilton, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, Kendall Wright, Justin Blackmon, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd, DeVier Posey, A.J. Jenkins, Stephen Hill, Justin Hunter, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tavon Austin from the fast table; Mohamed Sanu, Ryan Broyles, DeAndre Hopkins from the slow table), the percentages change a bit. 36% of the slower players posted a top-30, and now 41% of the faster players have done so, with 27% of them doing it twice. That is statistically significant territory, especially when factoring in the height requirements for the slower players.

Now, there is the matter of height for the quicker players. This table represents height in relation to top 30 seasons for faster players:

24 of the 126 top-30 seasons represented in the original table are found in the top 19 tallest players! Height clearly matters. Just as there is a sweet spot for 40 times (4.55), there seems to be a sweet spot for height as well. We’re increasing our sample size from the slow WR table, so it’s not entirely surprising that receivers as short 5’9 are producing top 30 seasons, but 73 inches, or 6’1″, remains the sweet spot for WR height, although more occurrences of top 30 seasons were produced by those shorter than 6’1″.

This introduces a converse relationship that I have suspected since the beginning of this research but now have real proof for. With the exception of Peerless Price, all of the 6′ or shorter WR’s had a 40 time faster than 4.47 and 13 of them had a 40 time faster than 4.42. This provides some evidence to the idea that not only is there a baseline of 4.55 speed, but that even with the ‘fast’ wide outs, there are separate tiers where height becomes less of an issue, as a player gets faster.

Weight is still a constant for the faster players. 37 of the 43 top-30 players weighed over 191 pounds, and 29 of them weighed out at 197 or heavier. Even as speed increases, and regardless of height, it helps to have prototypical NFL weight to avoid being muscled in the redzone and off of deep routes.

It’s hard to quantify the effects of Vertical Leap and Broad Jump (better statisticians than I have already found that short shuttle and 3-Cone times are hard to correlate to WR performance) because so many of the players, top-30 season having or not, don’t have recorded times. It’s worth noting that of the players shorter than the ‘sweet spot’ for height, all but Randall Cobb, Laverneus Coles, Lee Evans and Golden Tate had a higher than positional-average (according to Mock Draftable) vertical leap and only 11 of the 44 4.55 or faster players had a below average broad jump.

What Did We Learn About Fast Players?

Well, you don’t have to be as tall if you run a 4.55 or faster. It helps, but it isn’t a requirement. In between 1999 and 2011, 41% of wide receivers who ran a 4.55 40 or faster posted a top-30. That’s significant in and of itself. However, it is my thinking that if were to apply Jon Moore’s “Eric Decker Theory” (That a prospect who catches 35% of his teams yards, 35% of his teams touchdowns and turns 30% of his red zone targets into touchdowns is a legit NFL wide out) to the guys who posted solid 40 times and were drafted in rounds 1-3 but flopped as NFL players, we would find that NFL scouting departments weren’t doing a fantastic job. That will be my next post in this series.