Scoring touchdowns is good. Just inherently, scoring touchdowns is a good thing. I certainly don’t believe in the concept of “nose for the endzone”, at least just from watching players, but there are players who are inherently skilled at scoring. For fantasy football purposes, consistency by the way of yards is pretty nice, but finding players who are adept at scoring, by usage or by skill is valuable. For wide receivers, it’s easier to identify physical traits that aid in helping score touchdowns (height, large hands), the same is not so for running backs. The table that follows is all players with 15 or more rushing attempts inside in the 10 yard line and those players conversion percentages. (touchdowns/attempts). Data provided by Pro Football Reference.

• Given the context of the Lions backfield, it has to be a little worrisome to the Reggie Bush supporters that Mikel Leshoure owns the highest TD rate of any player at 56.25 and Reggie Bush is never the bottom at 16% with only 4 touchdowns on 24 looks.
• Arian Foster, with a mammoth amount of rushes inside in the 10 yard line still converted 28% of his looks into touchdowns. Defenses knew what was coming and Foster was still able to consistently score.
• Steven Jackson has been annoited as an extreme value for fantasy football, due to the sheer number of touchdown opportunities he will be given. As a member of the Rams over the last 3 years, Jackson converted 23.4% of his looks, and the ancient Micheal Turner converted 25.69% of his looks the last 3 years on the Falcons. The sheer discrepancy in inside-the-10 touches moves the fantasy indicators up for Jackson. Over the last 3 seasons, Turner has received 62 more carries than Jackson. On average, Turner received 36 carries in side the 10. If Jackson were to receive the same looks and convert his 3 year average, that would set a baseline of 8 touchdowns. However, given the awfulness of the offensive line play and the offense in general, I think S-Jax’s conversion rate spikes.
• His Godliness Tim Tebow converted 50% of his 10 yard touches, and the exact opposite of Tebow (Mike Vick) converted 45%, which leads me to believe that rushing quarterbacks have much wider lanes in which to score. If Tebow lined up a running back, that percentage would shrink.
• Cam Newton: 44 attempts, 17 touchdowns. Just another reminder that he is the Panthers goalline back.

Here is a look at all 3 tight end’s Market Share of Yards and Touchdowns.

Yards

Touchdowns

Paulsen is clearly inferior to Davis and Reed as an athlete. What is interesting is that Reed was much better as a freshmen and sophomore. While Davis eventually caught up to be Reed’s equal, the difference in quarterback play could not have been more dramatic. These metrics would seem to infer that Davis and Reed are comparable prospects, but with Davis coming back from injury, it would seem to dictate that Reed is going to take the starting job.

In 2012, The Redskins targeted a tight end 87 times. In 2011, that number jumped to 124.  The injuries to Davis and RG3 as well as the general state of flux of the offense caused those numbers to go down. However, historically, the Shanahan’s have loved to use the tight end. Reed’s ability to play in-line (he is a really, really bad blocker, but he can learn), in motion, in the slot, and at the X is going to cause his usage rates to go up. His pattern of usage early on will be something to watch. If the Redskins get him the ball in the open field and while he is on the move, his fantasy ceiling is quite high. I am going to subscribe to C.D Carter’s tight end streaming theory in 2013, and there is good chance that Reed is continual starter for many fantasy teams in 2013.