It’s getting real now. Your championship game is just one week away. Every single roster move you make is magnified and there is no room for error. While there is the sentiment offered that we fantasy owners must dance with who brought us to this point (shout out footballguys.com). That thinking is normally helpful but shouldn’t be viewed as a hard and fast rule. Picking the 100% optimized lineup is more important this week and next than in any other week because the differences in talent between the two teams will be very slight. With that in mind, here are your week 15 Start/Sit’s.
Quarterback Starts
-Josh Freeman versus New Orleans: The New Orleans Saints defense is horribly bad. Even with Freeman’s inconsistent play over the last month, he still has been able to put some decent fantasy games, but against the Saints in a game where the final score for both teams is likely to be in the 30′s, you have to get Josh Freeman in your line up. It’s possible that you have a decision like Matt Stafford versus Freeman or Andrew Luck versus Freeman. This week, you have to go with Freeman. It only takes one Doug Martin screen pass to make a decent fantasy day and then two or three big plays from Mike Williams or Vincent Jackson to have an elite fantasy day.
-Colin Kaepernick versus New England: You are either a believer are you aren’t. Maybe you had Kap stashed from his showing against the Jets, waiting for his upside to unleashed. Maybe you just luckily grabbed him off waivers. Either way, he’s helped you a couple times, and hurt you some others. There has been much talk about Aqib Talib and moving Devin McCourty to saftey which has improved New England’s secondary, but I’m not wholly buying it. I still think that this a prime matchup for Jim Harbaugh to show that he made the right choice by benching Alex Smith and going with the 2nd year kid out of Nevada. It is my belief that this is the game where all the training wheels come out and Kaepernick is the center point of the offense.
Let the tatted and talented Kaepernick lead you to the promised land.
Quarterback Sits
-Matt Ryan versus The New York Giants: For the first month and a half of the season, Matt Ryan has made owners who drafted him look like geniuses. Since then, he has been basically what he was last year. Over the last months, quarterbacks who have outscored him include Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill. With Roddy White undergoing mysterious knee MRI’s and possibly missing the first game of his career, I think that is all the push you need to send Ryan to the bench. There is a chance he goes 300 and 3 and bites you, but he has simply been mediocre. If you have either guy mentioned above, I would sit Ryan. The Giants absolutely embarrassed the Falcons in the playoffs last year and it isn’t hard to see that scenario repeating itself in week 15.
-Robert Griffin versus Cleveland: If he is declared inactive, this becomes obvious; but even if he does get the nod and starts the game, fantasy success is going to be difficult to come by. What makes RG3 such a great fantasy commodity is his rushing ability. Coming in with a knee brace and assuredly less than 100%, we have to assume his rushing attempts are going to be diminished. Rushing yards do wonders for a quarterbacks fantasy points and without those extra 5 points, its hard to imagine a scenario where Griffin is a top 10 guy versus a stiff Cleveland secondary that has been playing very well.
Despite palling around with the greatest hooper in the NBA, you still can’t trust RG3 this week.
Running Back Starts
-David Wilson versus Atlanta: The first round draft pick out of Virginia Tech finally escaped Tom Coughlin’s version of Zed’s basement for the fumble in the very first game of the year. With Bradshaw nicked up, Wilson took 13 carries for exactly 100 yards and a score last week. This week, against the 27th worst fantasy rush defense, I expect a huge performance. The coaching staff raved about his ability to break tackles at the second level and his speed was evident by the 227 return yards that he had last week. This is C.J Spiller-like situation where we see the talented young speedster inherit a backfield from the still-talented but more workmanlike starting running back. If Wilson is on your team, he is in your lineup. A guy like Knowshon Moreno or even Darren McFadden needs to see the bench. It will hurt, but you will end up being rewarded for your boldness.
Expect to see at least one of these as Wilson anchors your line up this week.
-Joique Bell at the Arizona Cardinals: Last week, Robert Turbin was in the top 20 in running back scoring, due to the sheer ineptitude of the Arizona Cardinals. Joique Bell has forced a legit timeshare in the Detroit backfield and is what the coaching staff likes to call their ‘closer’. When they want that clock ran down, Joique is getting the ball, not Leshoure. Now, Leshoure should obviously be played over him, but with the huge chance of a blowout and 20 second half carries being a real possibility for Joique, I would play him over the likes of Reggie Bush, Micheal Turner and even Ryan Matthews. If you are in a 14 or 16 team league and managed to get this guy on your roster, congratulations, you have your week 15 flex starter.
Running Back Sits
-Frank Gore at New England: As much as I believe in Kaep this week, I do not think that Gore reaps the same rewards. Vince Wilfork is playing like a man possessed, single-handedly ruining Arian Foster’s yards per carry last week, repeatedly stuffing him as he came up to the line. The entire year, New England has had a solid run defense, headlined by their All-SEC linebacking corp that makes it a nightmare for power runners like Frank Gore to try and get going. I fully expect a track meet between these two teams and don’t see Gore getting to 20 touches. If you have a guy like Knowshon Moreno or David Wilson, I have no problem with you benching Gore in favor of either of them.
-Darren Sproles versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Last week notwithstanding, Sproles has been disappointing to his fantasy owners. This replacement Saints coaching staff simply hasn’t been using him the right way. While last year, he got to 86 carries, while this year, he only has 31. Sproles is a great outside of the tackles runner and great out of the backfield. He is one of the pieces that makes that great Saints offense work, but it seems that Joe Vitt and company don’t realize that. Sproles does offer great upside, as we saw last week, but he is still a low-end RB2 or flex play.
Wide Receiver Starts
-Randall Cobb versus the Chicago Bears: Quick, speedy slot guys do well against the Bears. Due to the zone defense they run, agile and surehanded wide receivers, more often than not, find their way to a successful fantasy day. As the number 1 fantasy wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers, I fully expect a top 5 fantasy day out of Cobb. The Bears corners are big, physical guys but don’t have elite high-end speed. Further more, the Bears linebackers aren’t great in coverage and if Rodgers sees Cobb in the slot, lined up against one of them, its off to the races. Cobb should see 3 or 4 targets on screens or after being lined up as a running back and a majority of his fantasy points should come from there.
Great things will come to those who have faith in Cobb.
-Josh Gordon versus the Washington Redskins: Earlier in the year, Gordon had 3 games in a row with a long touchdown and we as the fantasy football community judged him as a boom or bust type of play. Part of our problem as a community is an inability to change an established state of mind. This is evident, clearly, with Josh Gordon. Since the Browns bye week, Gordon has posted 5,4,6,6 as his catch totals while accruing 315 yards and a touchdown over that span. He has transformed himself into a legit WR2 and against this already horrendous Washington secondary that is dealing with injuries, Gordon has a solid floor with potential for a huge day at the office.
Wide Receiver Sits
-Eric Decker versus the Baltimore Ravens: Over the last 5 games, Decker has been a flat disappointment to owners. After a torrid touchdown scoring streak, he saw his targets, catches, yards and touchdowns fall of a cliff. Last week, against the horrible Oakland Raiders, he was able to manage eight catches for eighty eight yards. Nice symmetry aside, having that game as a high water mark does not justify his fantasypros.com consensus ranking of WR19. As Cecil Lammey noted on the footballguys.com week 15 preview, the Ravens run an aggressive coverage scheme where wide outs are forced to battle for separation. The major knock on Decker’s game is his inability separate. His best plays come out of the slot or when he is set in motion. It doesn’t mean he is a bad wide out, it is just the nature of his game. If you have a different WR2 or flex option, I would look there instead.
-Mike Wallace versus the Dallas Cowboys: Coming off of his 2nd best game of the year, this may seem like an odd call. However, as a close observer of the Cowboys and their secondary, I feel comfortable in projecting a down game for the speedy wideout. His mindboggling inconsistency is going to hurt him in this game. Brandon Carr, while maybe not playing up to his total skill level, has done a good job on number 1 wide receivers a majority of the time. A few deep balls, especially the particularly egregious Jeremy Maclin touchdown, have totally eluded him. However, Carr is a big and physical corner who will be able to manhandle Wallace on intermediate routes and will eliminate him as a possibility in the redzone. If a Steelers wide out has a big day, it is going to be Antonio Brown with Morris Claibourne suffering from concussion symptoms still.
You really want to trust this guy?
Notes on the rest:
Get Antonio Gates out of your line up if he is still there. I really like Tony Scheffler as a flex play in deeper leagues. He has pulled slot duties and will be used more if Pettigrew misses this weekends game.. Dennis Pitta against the mockery of a secondary from Washington is an attractive play this week, especially if Flacco is allowed to use the hurry up more often with Cam Cameron out of town. If you are desperate at kicker and lost Robbie Gould in a deeper league, Josh Scobee of Jacksonville is a favorite of mine. Please, for the love of all that is holy, bench the San Francisco 49er’s defense against Belichick and Brady. That is negative points written all over it. The D/ST du jour is the Detroit Lions. If you don’t have another top 3 or 4 option, roll with whoever gets to face Ryan Lindley.
About Davis Mattek
20 Year old student of English at Kansas State University. Writer for Sports Wunderkind, The Fake Football and Hockey, and various other media outlets. Fan of the Cowboys, Thunder, Avalanche and Royals
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